Odds Overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: Paris Saint-Germain to win is priced at 1.75, while the draw is 3.95 and Lille to win is 4.60. On the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is priced lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10, which points to an expectation of at least three goals. In the main handicap market, Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet at 1.30 is clearly preferred to Lille Draw No Bet at 3.20.
Why Paris Saint-Germain Are Match Favourites
Paris Saint-Germain to win is priced at 1.75, a Lille victory is 4.60, and the draw is 3.95.
- In 21 of the last 24 head-to-head meetings, the Parisians have avoided defeat against Lille.
- In 9 of Lille's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, they have scored no more than one goal, which reduces the likelihood of sustained attacking pressure on the visitors' goal.
Form and Line-up Lille
Lille began their Ligue 1 campaign with a 2:0 clean-sheet win over Angers SCO, scoring both goals before half-time through Olivier Giroud and Tiago Santos. This match was Davide Ancelotti's official debut in charge of the team, with the hosts setting up in a 4-2-3-1 and controlling the game confidently.
In the league's pre-match snapshot, Lille rank 2nd for shots on target, averaging 8.0 accurate attempts per game, while also maintaining discipline by not exceeding 13 fouls per match across a run of 10 Ligue 1 fixtures.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, Lille have not scored fewer goals than their opponents
- In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, Lille have taken no more than 5 corners
- Lille's opponents have had no more than 4 shots on target in their last 10 Ligue 1 matches
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Berke Ozer — Tiago Santos — Nathan Ngoy — Alexsandro Ribeiro — Romain Perraud — Nabil Bentaleb — Ngal'ayel Mukau — Ethan Mbappe — Hakon Haraldsson — Ismail Cengiz Onal — Olivier Giroud
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain began the league season with a difficult away draw against Stade Rennais FC (2:2). Trailing 0:2 after the first half, the Parisians turned the match around in the second half thanks to a brace from substitute Ferran Torres.
Because their first-round match was postponed, the Parisians have to play two away fixtures in a row at the start of the season. Luis Enrique also noted the heavy physical workload caused by two finals played in four days before the league campaign began, which meant the team needed time to recover.
At the same time, Paris Saint-Germain have been disciplined away from home, receiving no more than two yellow cards in their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Key numbers:
- Paris Saint-Germain have committed no more than 12 fouls in their last 10 Ligue 1 matches
- In 8 of the last 10 away Ligue 1 matches involving Paris Saint-Germain, there have been no more than 10 corners
- In Paris Saint-Germain's last 10 Ligue 1 matches, they and their opponents have had at least 8 shots on target
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Matvey Safonov — Achraf Hakimi — Marquinhos — Willian Pacho — Lucas Hernandez — Vitinha — Joao Neves — Warren Zaire-Emery — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — Ousmane Dembele — Desire Doue
Team Chances
The no-margin assessment gives Lille to win a 20.9% chance with average odds of 4.60 and fair odds of 4.79, the draw 24.3% with 3.95 and 4.12, and Paris Saint-Germain to win 54.8% with 1.75 and 1.82. Paris Saint-Germain remain the most likely winners.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille to win | 4.60 | 4.79 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.12 | 24.3% |
| Paris Saint-Germain to win | 1.75 | 1.82 | 54.8% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.75, against 2.10 for Under 2.5 goals. On the 3.5-goal line, the situation is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is 1.43 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.65, so the market is more inclined to expect two or three goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.43 | 2.65 |
Handicap Prediction
Paris Saint-Germain handicap (-1.5) at 2.80 is priced significantly lower than Lille handicap (-1.5) at 8.00. On the 1.5 line, Paris Saint-Germain handicap (+1.5) is 1.04, compared with 1.38 for Lille handicap (+1.5). For the -1 handicap, the odds are 6.90 on Lille (-1) and 2.25 on Paris Saint-Germain (-1), while for the 1 line they are 1.63 on Lille (+1) and 1.06 on Paris Saint-Germain (+1). On the 0 handicap, Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet at 1.30 is noticeably lower than Lille Draw No Bet at 3.20.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | -1.5 | 2.80 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 6.90 | -1 | 2.25 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.20 | 0 | 1.30 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.10, meaning the market more often expects goals from both teams.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double Chance Prediction
X2 is the shortest-priced double chance at 1.22, 12 is 1.27, and 1X is 2.10. This underlines that a Paris Saint-Germain defeat is rated as the less likely outcome.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
11/10
|
27/100
|
11/50
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lille — 1 goal, Paris Saint-Germain — 1.5 goals.
Lille Team Total
Lille: Under 0.5 goals is 2.60 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.47; on the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.73 is priced lower than Over 1 goal at 2.05. For the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is offered at 1.32 and Over 1.5 goals at 3.10, so two goals from the hosts look less expected.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 0.5 | 1.47 |
| 1.73 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.10 |
Paris Saint-Germain Team Total
Paris Saint-Germain: Over 0.5 goals at 1.10 is significantly lower than Under 0.5 goals at 5.40, while Over 1 goal at 1.22 is lower than Under 1 goal at 3.85. On the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.75 against 2.03 for Under 1.5 goals; on the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.55 is priced lower than Over 2 goals at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 3.85 | 1 | 1.22 |
| 2.03 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.55 | 2 | 2.40 |
