Odds Overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: PSG to win is 1.52, while the draw is priced at 4.70 and Rennes to win at 5.70. On the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 looks notably preferable to Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. In the handicap markets, Rennes (+1.5) at 1.63 looks more likely than Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) at 2.20.
Why Paris Saint-Germain Are Favourites
The bookmakers see Paris Saint-Germain as clear favourites for the match: victory for the nominal hosts is priced at 1.52, while a Rennes win is 5.70. The draw is offered at 4.70.
• Paris Saint-Germain regularly outperform their opponents in attacking activity: in 10 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches, the Parisians beat their opponents for total shot attempts.
• In practice, the game will be played at Roazhon Park because of problems with the Parc des Princes pitch, reducing the Parisians' usual home advantage and giving the underdogs extra chances.
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
The Parisians go into the start of the league campaign after a busy spell featuring two cup matches. In their previous match against Lens, Paris Saint-Germain lost 0:1, failing to score even after their opponents had a player sent off in the 39th minute. The situation is further complicated by Nuno Mendes' suspension, which means the left side of defence will require reshuffling.
Key numbers:
Paris Saint-Germain have not lost the corner count to their opponents in their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Paris Saint-Germain have had at least 6 shots on target in their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Paris Saint-Germain have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Matvey Safonov — Achraf Hakimi — Illia Zabarnyi — Willian Pacho — Lucas Digne — Vitinha — Warren Zaire-Emery — Lucas Beraldo — Maghnes Akliouche — Desire Doue — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Absentees: Nuno Mendes — suspended.
Form and Line-up Rennes
Rennes ended their summer preparations with a friendly against Sunderland: the Bretons won the first half but lost 1:2 after the break. The team's main attacking weapon remains Esteban Lepaul, who finished as Ligue 1's top scorer last season with 21 goals.
Key numbers:
Rennes have had at least 4 shots on target in their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, Rennes have taken at least 5 corners.
At least 3 goals have been scored in 9 of Rennes' last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Brice Samba — Przemyslaw Frankowski — Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal — Anthony Rouault — Quentin Merlin — Sebastian Szymanski — Valentin Rongier — Adrien Thomasson — Mousa Al-Tamari — Esteban Lepaul — Issa Soumare
Absentees: Mahdi Camara — suspended, Lilian Brassier — doubtful.
Team Chances
The no-margin estimate gives Paris Saint-Germain a 62.9% chance, with fair odds of 1.59 compared with 1.52 in the market. The draw is rated at 20.3%: 4.92 versus 4.70. Rennes' win probability is 16.8%, with an estimate of 5.96 against market odds of 5.70.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Paris Saint-Germain to win | 1.52 | 1.59 | 62.9% |
Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
Rennes to win | 5.70 | 5.96 | 16.8% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 is notably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. At 3.5, the balance is closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.75, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.07.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.65 | 1.43 |
3.5 | 1.75 | 2.07 |
Handicap Prediction
Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) is offered at 2.20, while Rennes (+1.5) is 1.63. On the one-goal line, Paris Saint-Germain (-1) is priced at 1.78 against 2.05 for Rennes (+1). With a zero handicap, Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet at 1.20 is significantly shorter than Rennes Draw No Bet at 4.20.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
2.20 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.63 |
1.78 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.05 |
1.20 | 0 | 4.20 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.55 looks preferable to Both teams to score — No at 2.35: the second option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.55 |
No | 2.35 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.16 and 12 at 1.20 are rated almost the same and markedly higher than X2 at 2.55.
1X | 12 | X2 |
4/25
|
1/5
|
31/20
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Paris Saint-Germain — 2 goals, Rennes — 1 goal.
Paris Saint-Germain Team Total
Paris Saint-Germain: Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is significantly more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 7.40. On the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.45 versus 2.65 for Under 1.5 goals; at 2, Over 2 goals is 1.72 against Under 2 goals at 2.05. At the 2.5 mark, Under 2.5 goals at 1.63 is preferable to Over 2.5 goals at 2.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.40 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
1.63 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
Rennes Team Total
Rennes: Over 0.5 goals at 1.43 is preferable to Under 0.5 goals at 2.65. On the 1 line, Under 1 goal at 1.73 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.05, while at 1.5 the edge is with Under 1.5 goals at 1.35 over Over 1.5 goals at 3.00.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.65 | 0.5 | 1.43 |
1.73 | 1 | 2.05 |
1.35 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
Who will referee the match
Bastien Dechepy (France)
Matches: 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match: 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows): 4.4;
Matches with a red card: 4 of 16;
Matches with a penalty: 8 of 16.
