Odds overview
Spain are clear favourites: a Spain win is available at 1.20, while the draw is offered at around 7.20 and a Croatia win at 13.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.43. In the handicap market, Spain (-1.5) at 1.60 is favoured over Croatia (-1.5) at 2.22.
Why Spain are favourites
Bookmakers make the hosts clear favourites: Spain are offered at 1.20 to win, compared with 7.20 for the draw and 13.00 for a Croatia victory.
• Spain have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, regularly putting pressure on opposing defences.
• The team have also avoided defeat in all 10 of their last 10 matches in the competition, winning or drawing each one.
Form and Line-up Spain
Spain opened their UEFA Nations League campaign with a high-scoring 3:2 win over England, scoring three times away from home.
Spain have been disciplined: they received fewer than three yellow cards in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Spain recorded more than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Spain took more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 25.5 fouls were recorded in 8 of Spain's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Spain line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Marc Pubill, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Ferran Torres
Pedro Porro will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Croatia
Croatia take a pragmatic approach to attacking away from home in the UEFA Nations League: they attempted fewer than 14 shots, including blocked efforts, in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Croatia's away matches have also been disciplined affairs: they committed fewer than 12 fouls in 8 of their 10 away games in the competition.
- More than 7.5 corners were recorded in 8 of Croatia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The total number of fouls did not exceed 23.5 in 8 of Croatia's 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The total card count was below 5.5 in 9 of Croatia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Croatia line-up: Dominik Livaković, Ivan Perišić, Joško Gvardiol, Luka Vušković, Josip Stanišić, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Petar Sučić, Luka Sučić, Franjo Ivanović, Igor Matanović
The teams' chances
Spain to win at 1.20 corresponds to fair odds of 1.26 and a probability of 79.4%; the draw at 7.20 corresponds to 7.55 and 13.2%; Croatia to win at 13.00 corresponds to 13.64 and 7.3%. Spain are clear favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win | 1.20 | 1.26 | 79.4% |
| Draw | 7.20 | 7.55 | 13.2% |
| Croatia to win | 13.00 | 13.64 | 7.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.43. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.21 is considerably shorter than Under 2 goals at 3.85, while at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals at 1.58 is shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.26.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| 2 | 3.85 | 1.21 |
| 3.5 | 1.58 | 2.26 |
Handicap prediction
Spain (-1.5) at 1.60 is shorter than Croatia (-1.5) at 2.22. On the -1 handicap line, Spain (-1) at 1.50 is also favoured over Croatia (-1) at 2.43.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | -1.5 | 2.22 |
| 1.50 | -1 | 2.43 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/20
|
1/10
|
333/100
|
| William Hill |
1/25
|
11/100
|
7/2
|
| 888sport |
1/25
|
11/100
|
7/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Spain — 2.5 goals, Croatia — 0.5 goals.
Spain team goals
For Spain's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.04 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 7.40; Over 1.5 at 1.29 is shorter than Under 1.5 at 3.25. At the 2.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 2.5 at 1.82 and Over 2.5 at 1.92. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.30 is shorter than Over 3.5 at 3.20.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 3.25 | 1.5 | 1.29 |
| 1.82 | 2.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.30 | 3.5 | 3.20 |
Croatia team goals
For Croatia's team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.74 is shorter than Over 0.5 at 2.01. At the 1.5 and 2.5-goal lines, Under 1.5 at 1.10 and Under 2.5 at 1.01 are considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 5.40 and Over 2.5 at 9.50.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74 | 0.5 | 2.01 |
| 1.10 | 1.5 | 5.40 |
| 1.01 | 2.5 | 9.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Serdar Gözübüyük (Netherlands)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4.5;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 11.
