Why There Is No Favourite in the Match
If even Crystal Palace were a match for Liverpool last year, what is there to say about this pairing?
The two most expensive squads in the Premier League are separated by just EUR60 million: EUR1.47 billion for Manchester City against EUR1.41 billion for Arsenal.
The previous three Community Shield matches ended level in normal time.
Manchester City have won the last two head-to-heads, but they have changed head coach. Enzo Maresca, meanwhile, has not won a single match against Arsenal (two draws and one defeat).
Team Chances
Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 4%). Average line: Arsenal 2.66, draw 3.65, Manchester City 2.86.
Outcome | Average odds | Odds without margin (~) | Probability without margin |
Arsenal to win | 2.55 | 2.66 | ~37.7% |
Draw | 3.50 | 3.65 | ~27.4% |
Manchester City to win | 2.70 | 2.86 | ~34.9% |
After removing the margin, the Londoners' win is estimated at around 37.7%, the draw at 27.4%, and success for the Mancunians at 34.9%.
Form and Line-up Arsenal
Arsenal have not won any of their last three friendlies in normal time. Their opponents were not quite as elite as Manchester City's either: Betis, who reached the Champions League for the first time in 21 years (1:3), and Como, who qualified for Europe for the first time ever (1:1). They could not avoid penalties against Borussia Dortmund either (2:2). Arsenal's most recent experience of finals came at the end of spring, when they also drew in normal time with PSG (1:1) in the Champions League.
Key numbers for Arsenal:
Arsenal's previous 6 matches at any level ended with both teams scoring.
Their scoring run now stands at 13 matches, including friendlies.
Last Premier League season, Arsenal scored more goals from set pieces than anyone else.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Kepa Arrizabalaga - Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori - Kai Havertz, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martin Odegaard - Christos Tzolis, Viktor Gyokeres, Max Dowman.
Absentees: Jurrien Timber, Louis Copley (injuries).
Form and Line-up Manchester City
Manchester City did not allow themselves to lose in their season preparations, even though they mainly faced very strong sides: Italian champions Inter (1:1) and Spain's third force, Atletico Madrid (3:1). They also tested themselves against the best players from the Korean K League (3:1). Enzo Maresca used youngsters as well as players who had recently been deep reserves, such as Phil Foden. At most half of last season's first-choice side were involved, so the result was respectable.
Key numbers for Manchester City:
Manchester City have won the last 3 cups they have taken part in. All of them were domestic English competitions.
Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 5 matches at any level in a row.
Antoine Semenyo provided assists in all the pre-season friendlies (4 in total).
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma - Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Vitor Reis, Josko Gvardiol - Mateo Kovacic, Tijjani Reijnders - Antoine Semenyo, Phil Foden, Savinho - Omar Marmoush.
Absentees: Jack Grealish, Rodri (injuries).
Alternative Bets
Arsenal to win or draw + both teams to score: this combo has landed in three of Arsenal's four friendlies during their season preparations.
Arsenal, under 5.5 corners: Arsenal have taken no more than five corners in five of the previous seven head-to-heads.
Manchester City, over 1.5 goals: City have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 12 competitive matches.
Total Goals Prediction
The teams could quite easily make this a cagey game or put on a goal show, which is why the market has still not settled on a side of the total.
Under | Line | Over |
3.58 | 1.5 | 1.26 |
2.84 | 2 | 1.39 |
1.92 | 2.5 | 1.85 |
Handicap Prediction
Arsenal | Handicap | Manchester City |
4.08 | (-1/+1) | 1.21 |
1.82 | (0) | 1.92 |
1.20 | (+1/-1) | 4.23 |
The handicap (0) market is split almost down the middle at around 1.80-1.90. Backing either side with a handicap (+1) is not profitable at all, as the odds are simply not attractive enough.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
The market leans towards Yes (1.70) over Yes (2.12): how else could it be when both defences will line up in suboptimal combinations?
Double Chance Prediction
Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
Hollywoodbets UK | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.53 |
Betfred | 1.47 | 1.31 | 1.52 |
Virgin Bet | 1.42 | 1.29 | 1.45 |
Since this is a three-result match, whichever double chance you choose will be fairly attractive for a single bet.
Individual Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Arsenal - 1 or 1.5 goals, Manchester City - also 1 or 1.5 goals.
Arsenal Individual Total
Under | Individual total | Over |
2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
1.58 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
Arsenal have scored in 13 matches in a row, since April, so Arsenal over 1 goal is perfectly realistic.
Manchester City Individual Total
Under | Individual total | Over |
2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
1.52 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Manchester City over 1.5 goals at 2.45 is worth considering, as City scored two in each of the previous two head-to-heads.
Correct Score Prediction
Everything except a high-scoring 1:1 draw is priced at a fairly high level.
Correct score | Odds (~) |
1:1 | 6.00 |
1:0 | 8.60 |
0:1 | 8.80 |
When and where to watch
Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.
