Odds overview
Spain are clear favourites: a Spain win is available at 1.42, compared with 6.80 for Croatia and 5.00 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.54 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.34. At the 1.5 handicap line, Croatia (1.5) are quoted at 1.68 and Spain (1.5) at 2.09.
Why Spain are favourites
Spain are available to win at 1.42, while a draw is offered at 5.00 and a Croatia win at 6.80.
- Spain comfortably beat Croatia 4:1 in a recent meeting between the sides.
- Croatia come into the match after a heavy 0:7 home defeat to England.
Form and Line-up Croatia
In September, Croatia beat Czechia 2:1 away from home. In Croatia's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League, their opponents have never received more than two yellow cards, while their foul average — 7.5 per game — remains the lowest in UEFA Nations League Group A.
- There were more than 7.5 shots on target in 9 of Croatia's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Croatia's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Croatia received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Dominik Livaković, Josip Stanišić, Luka Vušković, Joško Gvardiol, Ivan Perišić, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Martin Baturina, Petar Sučić, Franjo Ivanović, Petar Musa.
Form and Line-up Spain
Spain have won their last two UEFA Nations League matches, beating England (3:2) and Czechia (3:1). The team have a high expected goals figure (2.45 xG), and their opponents have had no more than 13 shots in 9 of Spain's last 10 away matches in the competition.
- Spain have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Spain are unbeaten in their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Spain have taken more than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): David Raya, Aymeric Laporte, Iván Fresneda, Fran García, Robin Le Normand, Rodrigo Hernández, Pedri, Álex Baena, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Roberto Fernández.
Nico Williams will miss the match; the reason for his absence and his recovery timetable have not been officially disclosed.
The teams' chances
A Spain win is the likeliest outcome: the odds are 1.42, with fair odds of 1.49 and a probability of 67%. The corresponding figures are 5.00, 5.26 and 19% for a draw, and 6.80, 7.15 and 14% for a Croatia win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to win | 6.80 | 7.15 | 14.0% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.26 | 19.0% |
| Spain to win | 1.42 | 1.49 | 67.0% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.54, compared with 2.34 for Under 2.5. At the 2-goal line, the market leans more strongly towards Over 2 at 1.23, while Under 2 is available at 3.65. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is shorter at 1.54 than Over 3.5 at 2.34.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.34 | 1.54 |
| 2 | 3.65 | 1.23 |
| 3.5 | 1.54 | 2.34 |
Handicap prediction
Croatia (1.5) in the handicap market are shorter at 1.68 than Spain (1.5) at 2.09. At the 1-goal handicap line, Spain (1) at 1.63 are shorter than Croatia (1) at 2.17.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | 1.5 | 2.09 |
| 2.17 | 1 | 1.63 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
5/2
|
13/100
|
2/25
|
| William Hill |
7/4
|
9/50
|
11/100
|
| 888sport |
13/5
|
7/50
|
3/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Croatia — 0.5 goals; Spain — 2 goals.
Croatia team goals
For Croatia's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.58 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.26. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.53 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.40; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.24 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.26 | 0.5 | 1.58 |
| 1.53 | 1 | 2.40 |
| 1.24 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
Spain team goals
For Spain's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.07 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 6.20. Over 1.5 is available at 1.44, compared with 2.60 for Under 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Over 2 at 1.72 is shorter than Under 2 at 2.05. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.55, while Over 2.5 is available at 2.32.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.60 | 1.5 | 1.44 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.55 | 2.5 | 2.32 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.6;
Matches with a red card – 3 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 3 out of 10.
