The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Benfica (Portugal) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on 17 February at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Benfica
The home team snatched their place in the play-offs thanks to a miracle: in the decisive league-phase match against Real Madrid, Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the 98th minute, and that goal helped them edge out Marseille on tiebreakers and climb to 24th in the standings. Such a finish was a reward for their character. The Portuguese side began the Champions League proper with a run of four defeats, but did not collapse and picked up three wins in the next four matches. That is how the club have reached the knockout phase of this European competition for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
- At least one side failed to score in six of Benfica’s previous seven Champions League matches.
- The Lisbon outfit’s run without draws in this competition now stands at nine matches (four wins, five defeats).
- In the league phase, the club scored 10 goals in total; among the play-off teams, only Galatasaray (9) and Monaco (8) managed fewer.
Potential Benfica Lineup (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedic, Tomas Araujo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dahl – Gianluca Prestianni, Georgiy Sudakov, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Schjelderup – Evangelos Pavlidis.
Defender Alexander Bah and midfielder Richard Rios are not ready for the match due to injuries.
Real Madrid
The visitors stayed in the top eight for a long time, but lost their final match—where they needed at least a draw—and ultimately slipped to ninth in the table. That outcome can be called logical, because after a perfect start with three wins from the first three Champions League rounds, Real Madrid noticeably dipped and suffered three defeats in the next five games. Even so, the Madrid club will take part in the knockout phase of this European competition for the 29th consecutive season. It is worth noting that since the start of this Champions League campaign, the team have scored 21 goals—only three clubs have a better record by that metric.
- Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe set a record by scoring 13 goals in the league or group stage of the Champions League.
- The Spanish side’s run without draws in this competition has stretched to 24 matches.
- Eight of the club’s previous 10 Champions League matches were high-scoring.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Antonio Rudiger, Dean Huijsen, Federico Valverde, Alvaro Carreras – Arda Guler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga – Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia, Kylian Mbappe.
Defender Raul Asencio and forward Rodrygo are suspended. Midfielder Jude Bellingham and defender Eder Militao will miss the match through injury.
Referee
Francois Letexier (France)
Matches – 10 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 24;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 21;
Penalties – 30%.
Benfica vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
The sides met in the final round of the Champions League league phase, and they produced an entertaining contest that ended in a dramatic 4:2 win for Benfica. After that, Real Madrid will clearly be eager for revenge, but now the Portuguese side should be even more confident than before. Despite a disastrous start to the Champions League proper, the club pulled off a miracle and squeezed into the play-offs thanks to three wins in their last four matches. We should note that at home, Benfica have lost only two of their last six matches in this European competition, and on both occasions the Lisbon outfit went down by the narrowest of margins.
Real Madrid dropped out of the top eight as punishment for their inconsistency. Across the last six Champions League rounds, the team alternated between wins and defeats. Even in their successful matches—apart from the rout of Monaco (6:1)—the Spanish side beat their opponents by a slender one-goal margin. Away from home, the club have managed to win by more than one goal only once in their previous seven Champions League games. Moreover, four of the last six matches in that run ended in defeat in regular time.
Prediction: Benfica (+1)
