Odds overview
Home win at 1.75 is the clear favourite, while the draw and away win are at broadly similar odds — 4.15 and 4.20. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is markedly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. In the handicap market, Home Draw No Bet at 1.35 is rated higher than Away Draw No Bet at 3.00.
Why Borussia Dortmund are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: Borussia Dortmund to win is available at 1.75, while the draw is offered at 4.15 and a Villarreal win at 4.20.
• The German club have started the new domestic season confidently, winning three of their first four competitive matches.
• Villarreal have huge problems in the Champions League: the Spanish side have been outscored by their opponents in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition.
Form and Line-up Borussia Dortmund
In home Champions League matches, Borussia Dortmund show strict defensive organisation: in 9 of their last 10 games at Signal Iduna Park, opponents registered no more than 5 shots on target and a maximum of 12 attempts, while in all 10 matches they took no more than 4 corners.
Key numbers:
- At home, Borussia Dortmund had more corners than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
- Borussia Dortmund received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home Champions League games.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 8 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
Probable Borussia Dortmund line-up (3-4-2-1): Gregor Kobel, Julian Ryerson, Joan Gadu, Waldemar Anton, Filippo Mane, Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Jobe Bellingham, Konstantinos Karetsas, Maximilian Beier, Serhou Guirassy
According to current information, Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias, Justin Lerma, Ramy Bensebaini and Nico Schlotterbeck will miss the match. Filippo Mane suffered a muscle injury in the game against Hoffenheim and remains doubtful.
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Away Champions League matches have been difficult for the Spanish club: in 8 of their last 10 away fixtures, opponents had at least 13 shots against Villarreal. Villarreal themselves took no more than 4 corners in all 10 games and received a maximum of 3 yellow cards in 9 of 10 matches.
Key numbers:
- Villarreal committed 11 or more fouls in 8 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
- There were no more than 9 corners in 9 of Villarreal's last 10 away Champions League matches.
- In their last 10 Champions League matches, Villarreal scored 7 goals and conceded 23.
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Luiz Junior, Sergi Cardona, Renato Veiga, Logan Costa, Alex Freeman, Alberto Moleiro, Pape Gueye, Nathan Saliba, Nicolas Pepe, Ayoze Perez, Gerard Moreno
Team chances
Home win is offered at 1.75; the fair odds are 1.84 and the probability is 54.4%. The draw is quoted at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.36 and a probability of 22.9%, while away win is 4.20, 4.41 and 22.7% respectively. Home win is notably more likely, while the draw and away win are rated almost equally.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund to win | 1.75 | 1.84 | 54.4% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.36 | 22.9% |
| Villarreal to win | 4.20 | 4.41 | 22.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. At the 3.5-goal line, the balance changes: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.62 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.62 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
Home handicap -1.5 is quoted at 2.70, away handicap -1.5 at 7.10. At the 1.5 line, the odds are shorter for home handicap +1.5 — 1.05 compared with 1.40 for away handicap +1.5. Home handicap -1 at 2.25 is favoured over away handicap -1 at 6.20, while at the 1 line home handicap +1 at 1.07 is shorter than away handicap +1 at 1.65. At the zero line, home Draw No Bet is available at 1.35 compared with 3.00 for away Draw No Bet.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | -1.5 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.25 | -1 | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 3.00 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.53 is rated higher than Both teams to score - No at 2.40: the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.53 |
| No | 2.40 |
Double chance prediction
1X and 12 are offered at the same odds of 1.25, while X2 is quoted higher at 2.08.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
1/4
|
1/4
|
27/25
|
Team totals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Borussia Dortmund — 2 goals, Villarreal — 1 goal.
Borussia Dortmund team total
Borussia Dortmund team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.08 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 5.90. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is available at 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Under 1.5 goals. Under 2 goals at 1.70 is quoted lower than Over 2 goals at 2.10, while Under 2.5 goals at 1.40 is lower than Over 2.5 goals at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | 2 | 2.10 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
Villarreal team total
Villarreal team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.90. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.80 is quoted slightly lower than Under 1 goal at 1.97. Under 1.5 goals at 1.42 is markedly lower than Over 1.5 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.97 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Who will referee the match
Simone Sozza (Italy)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2025/26 - 2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3,9;
Matches with red cards – 2 out of 10;
Matches with penalties – 6 out of 10.
