Odds overview
A home win is available at around 2.40, the draw at 2.90 and an away win at 3.50, making Getafe slight favourites. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.43 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.65. In the 0 handicap market, the home side are 1.62 versus 2.30 for the visitors, also favouring the hosts.
Why Getafe are favourites
Getafe to win is available at 2.40, the draw at 2.90 and Celta to win at 3.50. The arguments for this assessment are:
Getafe are higher in the table, with 3 points from 3 matches, while Celta have only 2 points after 4 games.
Celta are yet to win in this La Liga season and have lost to Osasuna (1:2) and Athletic (0:2). The team are in crisis and showing no signs of improvement.
Getafe have already tasted victory — a 1:0 La Liga win over Racing and progress to the Conference League group stage (3:1 and 1:2 against Partizan).
Form and Line-up Getafe
Getafe lost their first La Liga match to Alaves (0:3) but then responded by beating Racing (1:0). However, the Madrid side lost 0:1 away to Osasuna in Matchday 3, conceding the only goal from a penalty late in the first half.
Key numbers:
No more than two goals have been scored in 8 of Getafe's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Getafe have scored at most one goal in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
No more than three goals have been scored in 9 of Getafe's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable Getafe line-up (4-4-2): David Soria — Kiko Femenia — Zaid Romero — Djene Dakonam — Johan Mojica — Alberto Risco — Francho Serrano — Orel Mangala — Ramon Terrats — Martin Satriano — Enes Unal.
Absentees: Christantus Uche, Juanmi, Mario Martin, Abdel Abqar, Andres Garcia (all injured).
Form and Line-up Celta
Celta drew 0:0 away to Real Sociedad in the last round, creating only 0.37 xG and again failing to score. The Sky Blues have no wins after four La Liga matchdays (two draws and two defeats) and have scored just one goal.
Key numbers:
Celta have taken at most 5 corners in each of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Celta have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Celta have registered at most 4 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Probable Celta line-up (3-4-3): Ionut Radu — Alvaro Nunez — Yoel Lago — Marcos Alonso — Javier Rueda — Miguel Roman — Ilaix Moriba — Sergio Carreira — Andres Antanon — Ferran Jutgla — Williot Swedberg.
Absentees: Borja Iglesias, Aleix Febas (both injured).
Team chances
A home win is available at 2.40; the fair odds are 2.51 and the probability is 39.8%. The draw is 2.90, with fair odds of 3.04 and a probability of 32.9%. An away win is available at 3.50, with fair odds of 3.67 and a probability of 27.3%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
Getafe to win | 2.40 | 2.51 | 39.8% |
Draw | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
Celta to win | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.43 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.65. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.73 has a slight edge over Over 2 goals at 2.05. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.12, while Over 3.5 goals is 5.00.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.43 | 2.65 |
2 | 1.73 | 2.05 |
3.5 | 1.12 | 5.00 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 line, the home handicap (-1.5) is 5.00 and the away handicap (-1.5) is 7.30. At the 1.5 handicap, the difference is minimal: the home handicap (1.5) is 1.05 versus 1.12 for the away handicap (1.5). At the -1 line, the home handicap (-1) is 4.20 and the away handicap (-1) is 6.40; at the 1 line, they are 1.07 and 1.20 respectively. At the 0 handicap, the home handicap (0) at 1.62 is shorter than the away handicap (0) at 2.30.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.00 | -1.5 | 7.30 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.20 | -1 | 6.40 |
1.07 | 1 | 1.20 |
1.62 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.57 looks more likely than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.35: the market expects at least one team not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.35 |
No | 1.57 |
Double chance prediction
1X has the shortest odds at 1.30, followed by 12 at 1.40, while X2 is available at 1.57. The market rates the outcome in which Getafe avoid defeat slightly higher.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.30 | 1.40 | 1.57 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Getafe — 1 goal, Celta — 0.5 goals.
Getafe team total
Getafe team total: Under 0.5 goals is 2.70 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.40. At the 1-goal line, the odds are nearly equal: Under 1 goal at 1.85 and Over 1 goal at 1.90. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.37 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.85.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Celta team total
Celta team total: Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.18 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.48 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.55. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.23 versus 3.70 for Over 1.5 goals.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.18 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
1.48 | 1 | 2.55 |
1.23 | 1.5 | 3.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Cesar Soto (Spain)
Matches — 20 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 6 of 20;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 20.
