Odds Overview
Manchester City to win at 1.48 looks the clear favourite compared with the draw at 5.00 and AFC Bournemouth to win at 5.90. On the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is priced noticeably lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. On the handicap, AFC Bournemouth (+1.5) at 1.65 is more appealing on price than Manchester City (-1.5) at 2.17.
Why Manchester City Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers consider Manchester City clear favourites: a home win is priced at 1.48, while an AFC Bournemouth win is available at 5.90 and the draw at 5.00. This advantage for the Manchester club is explained by several key factors.
Class and status. Manchester City are English runners-up, a team with one of the best squads in the league (Haaland, Foden, Cherki).
Home factor. City have not lost the first half in 18 consecutive matches at the Etihad Stadium, which points to complete control of games.
Individual quality. Erling Haaland can decide the outcome of a match at any moment.
AFC Bournemouth's problems away from home. The visitors have had no more than five shots on target away from home in 9 of their last 10 matches.
City's new coach. Enzo Maresca will be looking to prove himself after the heavy defeat to Arsenal (0:3) in the Community Shield.
Form and Line-up Manchester City
Manchester City played only three friendlies in the summer: a draw with Inter Milan (1:1), a win over the K League Stars (3:1) and a win over Atletico Madrid (3:1). But then came a setback in the Community Shield, where City had more of the ball but conceded three times without reply. Even Haaland, who was substituted early in the second half, could not help.
Key numbers:
They have conceded in 6 consecutive matches.
City have conceded at least one goal in 5 consecutive head-to-head meetings with AFC Bournemouth.
There have been fewer than 4 yellow cards in their previous 5 matches.
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma — Abdukodir Khusanov, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O'Reilly — Elliot Anderson, Mateo Kovacic — Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Antoine Semenyo — Erling Haaland.
Absentees: Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Savinho (all injured), Matheus Nunes (doubtful).
Form and Line-up AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth had a fairly bright pre-season: three wins in a row with an aggregate score of 19:4, including 10:1 against Genoa, a hard-fought draw with Real Betis (2:2) and a narrow defeat to Mainz 05 (1:2).
The team did not lose any key players in the off-season, but they did sign several top footballers — Alejandro Jimenez (Milan), Alvaro Rodriguez (Rayo Vallecano), Antonio Silva (Benfica) and Juanlu Sanchez (Sevilla).
Key numbers:
They have conceded in seven consecutive matches.
There have been fewer than 4 yellow cards in 5 of AFC Bournemouth's last 6 matches.
4 of AFC Bournemouth's previous 5 games ended with 10 corners.
Probable AFC Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic — Adam Smith, Antonio Silva, James Hill, Adrien Truffert — Lewis Cook, Alex Scott — Ryan, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier — Evanilson.
Absentees: Eli Junior Kroupi, Julian Araujo (both injured), Ryan Christie (suspended), Amine Adli, David Brooks, Tyler Adams (all doubtful).
Team Chances
Manchester City to win at 1.48 has a no-margin estimate of 1.55 and a probability of 64.6%. For the draw, odds of 5.00 correspond to a no-margin estimate of 5.23 and 19.1%; for AFC Bournemouth to win, the figures are 5.90, 6.17 and 16.2% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Manchester City to win | 1.48 | 1.55 | 64.6% |
Draw | 5.00 | 5.23 | 19.1% |
AFC Bournemouth to win | 5.90 | 6.17 | 16.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is priced substantially lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. On the 3.5 line, the prices are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.75, Over 3.5 goals is 2.08.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.65 | 1.45 |
3.5 | 1.75 | 2.08 |
Handicap Prediction
AFC Bournemouth (+1.5) at 1.65 is priced lower than Manchester City (-1.5) at 2.17. On the 1-goal line, Manchester City (-1) at 1.72 is cheaper than AFC Bournemouth (+1) at 2.12. On the zero line, Manchester City Draw No Bet is offered at 1.17 and AFC Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4.15.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
2.17 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.65 |
1.72 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.12 |
1.17 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.60 is priced lower than Both teams to score - No at 2.30, meaning the outcome in which at least one team does not score has been given higher odds.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.60 |
No | 2.30 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.15 and 12 at 1.19 have similarly low prices, while X2 at 2.65 is priced noticeably higher.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.15 | 1.19 | 2.65 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Manchester City — 2 goals, AFC Bournemouth — 1 goal.
Manchester City Team Total
Manchester City: Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is significantly lower than Under 0.5 goals at 7.90; on the 1.5 line, Over is cheaper at 1.43 than Under at 2.65. On the 2 line, Over 2 goals at 1.70 is priced lower than Under 2 goals at 2.10, while at 2.5 the balance changes: Under 2.5 goals is 1.65 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.18.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.90 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
2.65 | 1.5 | 1.43 |
2.10 | 2 | 1.70 |
1.65 | 2.5 | 2.18 |
AFC Bournemouth Team Total
AFC Bournemouth: Over 0.5 goals at 1.48 is priced lower than Under 0.5 goals at 2.55. On the 1 line, Under 1 goal at 1.67 is cheaper than Over 1 goal at 2.13, and at 1.5 the gap is even bigger: Under 1.5 goals is 1.32 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.05.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
1.32 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
