Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Real Sociedad are favourites: a home win is available at 2.00, while the draw is at 3.55 and an away win at 3.75. The main 2.5-goal total is evenly priced, with Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals both available at 1.90. In the main handicap market, Real Sociedad Draw No Bet at 1.48 is notably favoured over Celta Draw No Bet at 2.65.
Why Real Sociedad Are Favourites
Real Sociedad to win is available at 2.00, the draw at 3.55 and Celta to win at 3.75. The reasons for this are:
- Celta have made a poor start to the season — just one point from three rounds and 17th place in the table. The team have yet to find their rhythm, and things are even worse away from home.
- Celta's away attack is among the weakest in the league, averaging 0.33 goals per away match — the lowest figure in La Liga. Scoring against a pressing Real Sociedad side at home will be extremely difficult.
- Celta have had fewer than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away matches, while Real Sociedad have registered at least 8 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home games — the gap in attacking activity is huge and clearly favours the hosts.
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
In the previous La Liga round, Real Sociedad beat Espanyol 2:1 at home thanks to goals from Ander Barrenetxea and Orri Oskarsson, with Mikel Oyarzabal providing both assists. In the two preceding rounds, the Basque side lost to Betis (0:1) and Real Madrid (1:4) — clubs from the top four of last season's La Liga.
Key numbers:
Real Sociedad have conceded in 19 consecutive matches.
Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 8 of the previous 9 matches.
Fewer than 10 corners have been taken in 8 of the last 9 games.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2): Alex Remiro — Jon Aramburu, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Martin, Sergio Gomez — Luka Sucic, Benat Turrientes, Carlos Soler, Ander Barrenetxea — Orri Oskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal.
Absentees: Alvaro Odriozola, Pablo Marin (both injured), Jon Gorrotzategi (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Celta
In their latest match, Celta lost 0:2 at home to Athletic Bilbao, conceding two early goals in the 20th and 22nd minutes, after which Claudio Giraldez's attempts to take control of the game no longer affected the result. In the two previous rounds, the Celts also failed to win — 0:0 against Valencia and 1:2 against Osasuna.
Key numbers:
- Celta are winless in four consecutive matches.
- Fewer than 10 corners have been taken in 8 of the last 9 matches.
- Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of the last 10 matches.
Probable Celta line-up (3-4-3): Ionut Radu — Javi Rodriguez, Carl Starfelt, Abdoulaye Faye — Alvaro Nunez, Ilaix Moriba, Aleix Febas, Sergio Carreira — Williot Swedberg, Hugo Gonzalez, Ferran Jutgla.
Absentees: Borja Iglesias (injured).
Team Chances
A home win has average odds of 2.00 and fair odds of 2.10, corresponding to a 47.7% probability. The draw is listed at 3.55, 3.72 and 26.9%, while an away win is at 3.75, 3.93 and 25.4%: the hosts look clear favourites, but the chances of the other two outcomes are close.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Real Sociedad to win | 2.00 | 2.10 | 47.7% |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.72 | 26.9% |
Celta to win | 3.75 | 3.93 | 25.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
The odds are equal on the 2.5-goal line: Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both at 1.90. On the 3.5-goal line, the market leans much more towards Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 than Over 3.5 goals at 3.00.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 3.00 |
Handicap Prediction
The odds for Real Sociedad (-1.5) are 3.55, lower than the 6.80 for Celta (-1.5). On the opposite line, Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.06 is shorter than Celta (+1.5) at 1.25. Real Sociedad (-1) is available at 2.80 versus 5.90 for Celta (-1), while Real Sociedad (+1) is at 1.08 versus 1.38 for Celta (+1). In the zero-handicap market, Real Sociedad Draw No Bet at 1.48 is favoured over Celta Draw No Bet at 2.65.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.55 | -1.5 | 6.80 |
1.06 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
2.80 | -1 | 5.90 |
1.08 | 1 | 1.38 |
1.48 | 0 | 2.65 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.75 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.00. The latter option means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
The most likely double-chance outcome is 1X at 1.27. The 12 option is available at 1.30 and X2 at 1.80, so the away side avoiding defeat is considered less likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.27 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Real Sociedad — 1.5 goals; Celta — 1 goal.
Real Sociedad Team Total
Real Sociedad team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 4.30; on the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is at 1.37 versus Under 1 goal at 2.85. The odds are closer on the 1.5-goal line: Under 1.5 goals is 1.75 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.03. On the 2-goal line, the market favours Under 2 goals at 1.32 over Over 2 goals at 3.10.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.30 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.85 | 1 | 1.37 |
1.75 | 1.5 | 2.03 |
1.32 | 2 | 3.10 |
Celta Team Total
Celta team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.45 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.65. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.75 is favoured, while Over 1 goal is available at 2.00. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.35 is the clear favourite over Over 1.5 goals at 2.95.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
1.75 | 1 | 2.00 |
1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Victor Garcia (Spain)
Matches – 20 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows – 3.1;
Matches with red cards – 4 of 20;
Matches with penalties – 3 of 20.
