Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Valencia are favourites at around 2.25, while the draw and Celta to win are in the 3.25-3.35 range. On the main 2.5-goal total, Under is shorter than Over — 1.65 versus 2.25. With Valencia Draw No Bet priced at 1.60, the market rates Valencia noticeably higher than Celta Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Why Valencia Are Match Favourites
Bookmakers give the edge to the hosts: a Valencia win is priced at 2.25, the draw is 3.25, and Celta are 3.35 to win.
Home factor. At Mestalla, Valencia have had at least 12 shots at their opponents' goal in 8 of their last 10 home LALIGA matches, which points to steady chance creation on their own pitch.
Pre-season form. Valencia ended their preparations with a win over Hercules (2:0), while Celta drew with Napoli (1:1), but the Galicians had problems with their finishing.
Match statistics. In their last 10 league matches, Celta have not managed more than 12 shots per game, which points to modest attacking potential from the visitors overall, not just in individual matches.
Celta's personnel issues. Javi Galan, Matias Vecino and Pablo Duran remain doubtful, weakening the visitors' squad, especially in the holding midfield area and on the flanks.
Form and Line-up Valencia
Valencia had a mixed pre-season: three wins, one draw and four defeats. They ended their preparations for the season with a 2:0 win over Hercules thanks to goals from Javi Guerra and Ryunosuke Sato. Because the opening round was postponed, the club added two friendlies to maintain match rhythm before their official start.
Key numbers:
Valencia have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of their previous 9 matches.
There have been under 4 yellow cards in 8 consecutive games.
There have been under 10 corners in 6 matches in a row.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Stole Dimitrievski — Cesar Tarrega, Pepelu, Justin de Haas — Jesus Vazquez, Javi Guerra, Guido Rodriguez, Filip Ugrinic, Jose Gaya — Hugo Duro, Ryunosuke Sato.
Absentees: Jose Manuel Copete,, Alberto Mari, Diego Lopez (all injured), Dimitri Foulquier, Luis Rioja (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Celta
Celta start the season with an away match because their home game against Osasuna was postponed due to the pitch not being ready. In their last friendly, the Galicians drew 1:1 with Napoli — the only goal was scored by Ferran Jutgla, who is being viewed as the first-choice striker at the start of the season because of Borja Iglesias' late return.
The Celts had a fairly successful pre-season overall — no defeats, two wins and three draws, including against the aforementioned Napoli.
Key numbers:
Celta have scored first in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 4 of their previous 5 matches.
There have been under 10 corners in nine consecutive games.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Andrei Radu — Javi Rodriguez, Carl Starfelt, Marcos Alonso — Javi Rueda, Miguel Roman, Aleix Febas, Sergio Carreira — Hugo Gonzalez, Williot Swedberg — Ferran Jutgla
Absentees: Matias Vecino (injured), Javi Galan, Pablo Duran (both doubtful).
Team Chances
Valencia to win is offered at 2.25, with a no-margin price of 2.36 and a probability of 42.3%; the draw is 3.25, 3.41 and 29.3%; Celta to win is 3.35, 3.52 and 28.4%. Valencia are considered moderate favourites, while the chances of a draw and a Celta win are close.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | No-margin probability |
Valencia to win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.3% |
Draw | 3.25 | 3.41 | 29.3% |
Celta to win | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.65 versus 2.25 for Over 2.5 goals, which tilts the line towards a lower-scoring scenario. At the 2-goal mark, Over is 1.70 and Under is 2.10. For 3.5 goals, Under is rated at 1.20, while Over is 4.30.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
2 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 4.30 |
Handicap Prediction
Valencia handicap (-1.5) is priced at 4.40, while Celta handicap (-1.5) is 7.00. On the 1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.05 for Valencia (+1.5) and 1.16 for Celta (+1.5). Valencia (-1) is 3.55 versus 6.10 for Celta (-1), while on the 1-goal line the prices are 1.08 and 1.25 respectively. Valencia Draw No Bet at 1.60 is shorter than Celta Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
4.40 | -1.5 | 7.00 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
3.55 | -1 | 6.10 |
1.08 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.60 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.80 is priced lower than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.95: the market slightly leans towards at least one team not scoring.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.95 |
No | 1.80 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is offered at 1.33, 12 at 1.35 and X2 at 1.65. The most likely double-chance option appears to be Valencia avoiding defeat, while X2 is rated more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.33 | 1.35 | 1.65 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Valencia — 1 goal, Celta — 1 goal.
Valencia Team Total
Valencia: Under 0.5 goals is 3.25, Over 0.5 goals is 1.30; on the 1-goal line the prices are 2.15 and 1.67 respectively; on 1.5 they are 1.50 and 2.45. The line clearly expects at least one goal from the hosts, but the price advantage is on no more than one.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.15 | 1 | 1.67 |
1.50 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Celta Team Total
Celta: Under 0.5 goals is 2.50, Over 0.5 goals is 1.50; on the 1-goal line the prices are 1.65 and 2.17 respectively; on 1.5 they are 1.28 and 3.35. A goal for the visitors is rated as more likely, while two or more goals are priced significantly higher.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
1.65 | 1 | 2.17 |
1.28 | 1.5 | 3.3 |
