Odds Overview
Chelsea are clear favourites: Chelsea to win is priced at 1.90, while Fulham to win and the draw are both available at around 3.80–3.85. Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.25 in the main total market. Fulham Draw No Bet is priced at 2.65, compared with 1.42 for Chelsea Draw No Bet, which also favours the visitors.
Why Chelsea Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers regard Chelsea as strong favourites: an away win is priced at 1.90, while a Fulham win is available at 3.80 and the draw at 3.85. Chelsea, double chance is priced at 1.30. The London club's advantage is explained by several key factors.
Quality and status. Chelsea have a stronger squad and experience of competing for the top places in the Premier League.
New signings. The visitors are immediately integrating Morgan Rogers, Maxence Lacroix and Marco Palestra into the starting line-up.
Head-to-head record. Chelsea rarely lose to Fulham in head-to-head meetings, with four wins in the last six matches.
Fulham's rebuild. The hosts are only beginning to build a refreshed squad under new manager Alvaro Arbeloa.
Form and Line-up Fulham
Fulham ended their pre-season with a 1:0 home win over Stuttgart, only their second victory of the campaign. In the remaining matches, the Cottagers suffered two defeats and drew twice.
The Londoners have several departures — Harry Wilson joined Leeds and Raul Jimenez moved to Wolverhampton Wanderers as free agents, while Sasa Lukic and Issa Diop were sold to Ipswich Town for €20 million. They were replaced by Jonah Kusi-Asare from Bayern Munich, Real Madrid academy products Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios, as well as Shea Charles from Southampton.
Key numbers:
Fulham have conceded against Chelsea in seven consecutive meetings.
Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in eight consecutive matches.
Probable Fulham line-up (4-2-3-1): Bernd Leno — Timothy Castagne, Calvin Bassey, Jorge Cuenca, Antonee Robinson — Sander Berge, Alex Iwobi — Oscar Bobb, Joshua King, Cesar Palacios — Gonzalo Garcia.
Absentees: Joachim Andersen (suspended), Tom Cairney (injured).
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea, managed by Xabi Alonso, won their final friendly against Real Sociedad 3:1, although the players arrived for the start of the season with varying levels of fitness after the World Cup. In their previous five friendlies, the Blues won twice, lost twice and drew once.
The most notable departures were Tyrique George to Everton, Andrey Santos to Manchester United, Trevoh Chalobah to Como and Alejandro Garnacho's loan move to Aston Villa. Chelsea have also strengthened significantly: Emmanuel Emegha from Strasbourg, Marco Palestra from Atalanta, Geovany Quenda from Sporting CP, Denner Alves from Corinthians, Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa, Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace, Danny Welbeck from Brighton, Valentin Barco from Strasbourg, Jordan Henderson from Brentford, Pep Chavarria from Rayo Vallecano and Dastan Satpaev from Kairat, who was sent on loan to Burnley.
Key numbers:
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
The Blues scored first in 5 of their previous 7 head-to-head matches against Fulham.
Fewer than 10 corners have been taken in nine consecutive matches.
Probable Chelsea line-up (3-4-2-1): Robert Sanchez — Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix, Reece James — Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo, Marco Palestra — Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers — Joao Pedro.
Absentees: Wesley Fofana (suspended), Jordan Henderson (injured).
Team Chances
The margin-free assessment gives Chelsea a 50.2% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.90 and fair odds of 1.99. Fulham to win has a 25.1% chance (3.80; 3.99), while the draw has a 24.8% chance (3.85; 4.04).
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
Fulham to win | 3.80 | 3.99 | 25.1% |
Draw | 3.85 | 4.04 | 24.8% |
Chelsea to win | 1.90 | 1.99 | 50.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over is priced lower than Under — 1.65 compared with 2.25. The picture is reversed at 3.5: Under is 1.50 and Over is 2.45.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
3.5 | 1.50 | 2.45 |
Handicap Prediction
Fulham (-1.5) is priced at 6.40, compared with 3.05 for Chelsea (-1.5); Fulham (+1.5) is 1.33 against 1.07 for Chelsea (+1.5). For the -1 line, the prices are 5.70 for Fulham (-1) and 2.55 for Chelsea (-1); for the +1 line, they are 1.52 and 1.09 respectively. Chelsea Draw No Bet at 1.42 is priced lower than Fulham Draw No Bet at 2.65.
Home | Handicap | Away |
6.40 | -1.5 | 3.05 |
1.33 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
5.70 | -1 | 2.55 |
1.52 | 1 | 1.09 |
2.65 | 0 | 1.42 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.30, meaning at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.60 |
No | 2.30 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are for 12 at 1.28, with X2 slightly higher at 1.30; 1X is priced at 1.90.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.90 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
Team Total Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Fulham — 1 goal; Chelsea — 1.5 goals.
Fulham Team Total
Fulham: Under 0.5 goals — 2.95, Over 0.5 goals — 1.35; at the 1-goal line, the prices are 2.00 and 1.75 respectively. At 1.5, Under is priced at 1.40 and Over at 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Chelsea Team Total
Chelsea: Under 0.5 goals — 5.10, Over 0.5 goals — 1.12; at the 1-goal line, the prices are 3.55 and 1.25. Under 1.5 goals at 1.98 is slightly higher than Over 1.5 goals at 1.78, while at the 2-goal line Under is 1.52 compared with 2.45 for Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.10 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
3.55 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.98 | 1.5 | 1.78 |
1.52 | 2 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
John Brooks (England)
Matches – 1 (all competitions, 2026/27)
Average fouls per match – 33
Average yellow cards per match – 6
