NBA Playoffs 2025/26 Predictions and Scenarios
Welcome to the most exciting part of the basketball season, with the NBA playoffs getting under way on 18 April. The defending champions are flying high. Despite fitness issues, including concerns around several key players, especially Jalen Williams, the team still finished first in the entire league and were the only side to lose fewer than 20 games (64-18).
The depth of the team and overall quality enables the Oklahoma City Thunder to dominate even in less-than-ideal circumstances. No wonder they are considered the main favourite to win the title this season:
Who will be crowned NBA champions in 2025/26?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are waiting for either the Phoenix Suns.
NBA Playoff bracket 2025/26
Can Anyone Stop Oklahoma City?
If, back in winter, there were faint suggestions that Oklahoma City Thunder could be beaten — particularly after a series of wins over the champions from San Antonio Spurs — the Thunder gradually showed their dominance. Their victory over the Spurs on 14 January was especially revealing. In that game, the champions partially demonstrated how they would deal with Victor Wembanyama in a playoff series if needed. They adjusted their strategy, shifted away from weak shooters like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, used their favourite tactic of putting Alex Caruso on the centre, and ultimately closed out the game with a 119:98 victory — arguably against their most dangerous potential opponent.
A little later, the Spurs beat the Thunder for the fourth time that season, but the opponents were effectively using a reserve line up before the All-Star break and were without all of their leading players. That one does not really count.
This brings us to the main question: it is completely unclear who can realistically outplay Shai in a seven-game series. Head coach Mark Daigneault has already shown his impressive ability to adapt to opponents during a series and make necessary adjustments. Fortunately, he has an abundance of options:
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he can go relatively small with Chet Holmgren or even lean further into small ball with J Dub at the five;
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he can play with two big men, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren;
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he can bring Jaylin Williams off the bench with barely any drop in quality;
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naturally, he can send Alex Caruso to defend your centre;
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and there is plenty more besides.
So how do you beat all of that? More importantly, who is actually capable of doing it?
San Antonio Spurs. They are inexperienced and will most likely struggle in the clutch. Throughout the regular season, despite having one of the league's best late game operators in De'Aaron Fox, they deliberately put the ball in Victor Wembanyama's hands in the decisive moments whenever those moments arrived. Towards the end of the campaign he finally hit his first game winning buzzer beater against the Phoenix Suns, but Fox, who has struggled in clutch situations all year, simply isn’t in his usual form in those decisive moments.
This will come back to bite the Spurs, but they knew what they were doing, and strategically, the decision makes sense. Wembanyama is the future. They need to develop him into a true force capable of dominating both on offence and in the clutch moments that matter most. But for now, he’s still learning.
Denver Nuggets. They have not looked comfortable, and we shouldn’t be fooled by the strong finish to the regular season, where they played relatively weak teams. The same can be said for the stretch without an injured Nikola Jokic: the Nuggets played well against weaker sides, which deserves credit, but once their schedule turned into a run of top-tier opponents from February onwards, it got painful.
Probably the only results that truly stand out are the two wins over the San Antonio Spurs, 136:131 in March and 136:134 after overtime in early April. We can ignore the final regular season game because none of the main players were involved by that point.
And it’s precisely against the San Antonio Spurs that the Denver Nuggets are a particularly tough matchup. Thanks to Jokic, who kept producing his magic despite Wembanyama's defence, and due to their championship experience. They also have the ability to win in clutch situations — though, there are some doubts. But against the San Antonio Spurs, the Nuggets have repeatedly seized those late-game moments.
The problem is that they would have to face the Spurs in the second round, assuming they get past the Minnesota Timberwolves. As for defeating Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals? Unlikely. Three regular season losses to the champions — excluding the penultimate game of the season — serve as evidence.
The other Western Conference teams appear to have even more vulnerabilities, and we could write 10 more pages about them, but what’s the point? We’ve already covered the three main favourites in the West, and in the East, all the teams seem somewhat incomplete, with obvious weaknesses.
Best Bets for the NBA Playoffs 2025/26
One of the key bets for the 2026 playoffs flows naturally from the previous analysis:
The odds are hardly spectacular, but they look quite solid. With such a dominant Oklahoma City Thunder, the breakthrough Spurs, and the experienced Denver Nuggets, soaked in Serbian genius, Eastern Conference teams seem to have little to offer in comparison.
So, what’s wrong with the Eastern teams?
The Detroit Pistons have a stellar defence, but they have huge problems with a reliable second option and, most importantly, shooting. The starting line up features two players without a three-point shot — centre Jalen Duren and one of the season's best defenders, Ausar Thompson, who is extremely limited on offence. Overall, it’s easier to shut down the Pistons' attack.
Boston Celtics have had a fantastic season and have been one of the biggest surprises of the championship, but there’s a catch: the team has many players with little playoff experience. This includes Neemias Queta, Baylor Scheierman, former secondary player in the playoffs Sam Hauser, and rookie Hugo Gonzalez. Basically, everyone except Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum (coming back from a serious injury).
The New York Knicks have Josh Hart, who doesn’t space the floor, meaning that players like Victor Wembanyama and Chester Holmgren can cover almost everything defensively. Plus, they have the unreliable Karl-Anthony Towns, who has a long-standing history of faltering in important moments.
Perhaps the most complete side on paper is the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they have a whole collection of chokers. The main one is James Harden, who will inevitably fizzle out in Game 6 or Game 7 of the second round. Or in the Conference Finals. Donovan Mitchell has never achieved much in the playoffs either, and all of this raises some red flags.
That said, backing this group of four to make it through to the second round looks quite reasonable, as their first-round opponents appear much weaker and should not pose major issues. The standout price so far is on the New York Knicks.
An exception could be the Philadelphia 76ers, provided Joel Embiid recovers quickly from appendicitis. Even with Embiid, however, given his current level of play on defence and health concerns, there are still questions about facing the tough Boston Celtics.
After that, though... things get blurry.
Roughly speaking, any team from the top four in the East can beat each other in a series. A sensible projection for which team from this conference will make the NBA Finals looks like this:
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The Boston Celtics, the Detroit Pistons, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks — each at 24%, which equates to odds around 4.00;
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All other teams — 1%. Realistically, do teams like the Toronto Raptors or the Atlanta Hawks really have a chance at making the NBA Finals?
Bookmakers see it slightly differently:
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Team |
Odds to reach the finals |
|
Boston Celtics |
5/4
|
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Cleveland Cavaliers |
13/5
|
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Detroit Pistons |
5/1
|
|
New York Knicks |
5/1
|
Given this, the higher-priced Pistons and Knicks look like value bets, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are closest to being the "correct" fourth team.
Aside from the Oklahoma City Thunder winning the title, the next odds to consider are the Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves series total games over 5.5 at
3/10
Two years ago, these teams delivered a seven-game thriller in the second round, and in general, not much has changed since then. The Minnesota Timberwolves have probably become even weaker after losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, while the Denver Nuggets' defence in the second half of the season has been underwhelming.
It’s hard to fully trust the Timberwolves, but on their good days, they can compete with anyone. In the playoffs, they certainly won’t be slacking off, which was one of their major problems in the regular season, so they are absolutely capable of taking a couple of games off the Nuggets.
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