Odds overview
Poland are favourites in the match-result market: they are 2.23 to win, compared with 3.05 for Sweden, while the draw is 3.65. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.17. Poland Draw No Bet (0) is 1.63, while Sweden Draw No Bet (0) is 2.17, again favouring the hosts.
Why Poland are favourites
Bookmakers favour Poland: a home win is available at 2.23. Sweden are 3.05 to win, while the draw is offered at 3.65.
- Poland have picked up points fairly consistently in competitive matches, avoiding defeat in 6 of their last 10 games across all competitions.
- Sweden have been more reliable in the competition: they are unbeaten in their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches and secured top spot in their group with games to spare.
Form and Line-up Poland
On 14 November, Poland lost 1:2 to Romania. Ahead of the final group-stage round, Poland sit third with four points. Romania are bottom of the table but trail by just one point.
The hosts have selection problems ahead of the decisive match. Jakub Kiwior was booked in Bucharest and will now miss the game against Sweden through suspension. Piotr Zieliński missed the previous match because of health problems — his availability for the upcoming game has yet to be confirmed.
- Poland scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- In 8 of Poland's last 10 matches across all competitive competitions, the two teams combined for more than 5.5 shots on target.
Probable line-up: Bartłomiej Drągowski, Matty Cash, Kacper Potulski, Oskar Kubiak, Jakub Kiwior, Marcel Regula, Viktor Novak, Sebastian Szymański, Nicola Zalewski, Karol Swiderski, Robert Lewandowski.
Kamil Grabara, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Wojciech Mońka and Norbert Wojtuszek are unavailable through injury.
Form and Line-up Sweden
On 14 November, Sweden beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 3:2 at home. That win took Sweden to 13 points and secured them top spot in their UEFA Nations League group with games to spare.
Dejan Kulusevski returned to the national squad for the November matches after more than 17 months out with a serious knee injury. Meanwhile, Besfort Zeneli left the national-team camp on 9 November.
- Sweden avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Sweden scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up: Viktor Johansson, Daniel Svensson, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Victor Lindelöf, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anthony Elanga, Hugo Larsson, Yasin Ayari, Sebastian Nanasi, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak.
Emil Holm, Lucas Bergvall and Patrik Wålemark were left out of the squad because of injuries.
Match-result probabilities
Poland are offered at 2.23 to win; their fair odds are 2.34, with a probability of 42.7%. The draw is 3.65, with fair odds of 3.83 and a probability of 26.1%. Sweden are 3.05 to win; their fair odds are 3.20, with a probability of 31.2%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland to win | 2.23 | 2.34 | 42.7% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Sweden to win | 3.05 | 3.20 | 31.2% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 2.17 and Over 2.5 is 1.63. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 3.35 and Over 2 at 1.27. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is 1.47 and Over 3.5 is 2.51.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.17 | 1.63 |
| 2 | 3.35 | 1.27 |
| 3.5 | 1.47 | 2.51 |
Draw No Bet odds
Poland Draw No Bet (0) is 1.63, while Sweden Draw No Bet (0) is 2.17: the market favours Poland.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | 0 | 2.17 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
9/25
|
3/10
|
13/20
|
| LeoVegas |
2/5
|
3/10
|
3/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Poland — 1.5 goals; Sweden — 1.5 goals.
Poland team goals
For Poland, Under 0.5 goals is 4.15 and Over 0.5 is 1.18. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.82 and Over 1.5 is 1.92. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.23 and Over 2.5 at 3.65.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.23 | 2.5 | 3.65 |
Sweden team goals
For Sweden, Under 0.5 goals is 3.35 and Over 0.5 is 1.27. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.57 and Over 1.5 is 2.28. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.14 and Over 2.5 at 4.65.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.28 |
| 1.14 | 2.5 | 4.65 |
