Odds overview
Portugal are clear favourites: a Portugal win is offered at 1.45, compared with 6.80 for Wales and 4.90 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. For the handicap, Portugal (-1) at 1.65 is favoured over Wales (+1) at 2.15.
Why Portugal are favourites for the match
Bookmakers make Portugal favourites, offering 1.45 for them to win. A draw is available at 4.90, while a Wales win is 6.80.
- Portugal regularly get results in competitive matches: they have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Wales have struggled in the current edition of the competition, losing four of their five Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Wales
On 14 November 2026, Wales lost 1:3 away to Norway. Neco Williams scored Wales's only goal.
Wales will now have to do without Ethan Ampadu in midfield: he was booked against Norway and will miss the match against Portugal through suspension.
- Wales have failed to win 6 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Wales have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Wales's last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable Wales line-up (4-2-3-1): Karl Darlow, Neco Williams, Joe Rodon, Ben Davies, Jay Dasilva, Josh Sheehan, Liam Cullen, Daniel James, Harry Wilson, Brennan Johnson, Lewis Koumas
Jordan James is on the injury list with a muscle problem.
Form and Line-up Portugal
Portugal's last match ended in a heavy home defeat: they lost 1:4 to Denmark on 14 November 2026.
Yet Portugal took six points from their two matches in early October, beating Denmark away (4:2) and Norway at home (2:1). Gonçalo Ramos and João Félix have stood out for their goalscoring in the Nations League, with 3 goals each.
- Portugal have scored more than 0.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Portugal's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away Nations League matches.
Probable Portugal line-up: Diogo Costa, Alberto Costa, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Diogo Dalot, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Pedro Neto, João Félix, Bruno Fernandes, Gonçalo Ramos
Rafael Leão (hamstring injury) and Nuno Tavares (muscle injury) are listed as unavailable.
The teams' chances
A Portugal win has average odds of 1.45, fair odds of 1.51 and a probability of 66.3%. The corresponding figures are 4.90, 5.10 and 19.6% for a draw, and 6.80, 7.08 and 14.1% for a Wales win.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales to win | 6.80 | 7.08 | 14.1% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.10 | 19.6% |
| Portugal to win | 1.45 | 1.51 | 66.3% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 has markedly shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At 3.5 goals, the relationship reverses: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap betting
Portugal (-1.5) are offered at 2.17, while Wales (+1.5) are at 1.70. On the one-goal handicap line, Portugal (-1) at 1.65 are shorter than Wales (+1) at 2.15. With a zero handicap, Portugal (0) are available at 1.14 compared with 4.60 for Wales (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.17 | |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.65 | |
| 2.15 | 1 | |
| 4.60 | 0 | 1.14 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.78, while Both teams to score — No is at 1.98; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/4
|
17/100
|
1/10
|
| William Hill |
47/25
|
9/50
|
11/100
|
| LeoVegas |
8/5
|
9/50
|
13/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Wales — 0.5 goals, Portugal — 2 goals.
Wales team total goals
For Wales, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.65, compared with 2.20 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.48 and Over 1 goal is 2.55; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is 1.22 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.48 | 1 | 2.55 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Portugal team total goals
For Portugal, Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 8.00. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.48 compared with 2.55 for Under 1.5 goals; at 2 goals, the odds are close — 1.85 for Over 2 goals and 1.90 for Under 2 goals. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.50 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.55 | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.90 | 2 | 1.85 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sven Jablonski (Germany)
Matches — 9 (international matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 9.
