Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Predictions: The Wimbledon Semi-finals

Daniil Medvedev faces Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 Wimbledon semi-finals. Just like it was a year ago. Carlos Alcaraz left no chance to Medvedev beating him in 3 sets. Now, Daniil Medvedev is ready to avange that defeat. However, Alcaraz is highly motivated to defend the title and rating points.

Who will win: Medvedev or Alcaraz?

The game is scheduled to start on July 12. Below you will find our analysis of the current form of the players, some interesting betting options and our prediction.

Medvedev vs Alcaraz Betting Odds

The players are so close in the ATP rankings, with Medvedev being 5th and Alcaraz occypying 3rd position. Betting sites offer very different odds, though. Alcaraz is the obvious favourite. You can bet on him at 3/10 . Although Medvedv is considered an outsider, his game versus Sinner proved that this status doesn't mean anything in particular. You can bet on Medvedev to win at 51/20


Medvedev to win

Alcaraz to win 

Betfred 5/2 3/10
Unibet 51/20 3/10
10bet 5/2 3/10
Copybet 13/5 3/10
Betway 11/4 3/10

Medvedev vs Alcaraz Head-to-head Statistics

The opponents have played head-to-head matches on a regular basis since 2021. It usually happens in the late stages of some big events. Medvedev and Alcaraz have played 6 head-to-head games, with Alcaraz winning 4 of them. Carlos beat Daniil a year ago. Besides, Alcaraz won two last matches against Medvedev without losing a set in the 2023 ATF Finals and 2024 Indian Wells tournament. 

Medvedev vs Alcaraz head-to-head






Indian Wells 2024

Hard Final

Carlos Alcaraz — Daniil Medvedev

2-0 (7:6, 6:1)

Masters Cup ATP 2023

Hard Group stage

Carlos Alcaraz — Daniil Medvedev

2-0 (6:4, 6:4)

US Open 2023

Hard Semi-finals

Daniil Medvedev — Carlos Alcaraz 

3-1 (7:6, 6:1, 3:6, 6:3)

Wimbledon 2023

Grass Semi-finals

Carlos Alcaraz — Daniil Medvedev

3-0 (6:3, 6:3, 6:3)

Indian Wells 2023

Hard Final

Carlos Alcaraz — Daniil Medvedev

2-0 (6:3, 6:2)

Wimbledon 2021  Grass Second Round

Daniil Medvedev — Carlos Alcaraz 

3-0 (6:4, 6:1, 6:2)

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has reached the semi-finals after beating World #1 Jannik Sinner. Daniil ended his 5-games losing streak against the Italian player.

However, there's another important thing. The game lasted almost 4 hours. This will affect Medvedev physically. Good for him, that he has 3 days to recover. It should be enough for a professional like Daniil.

Medvedev hasn't faced a problem in neither of the games he's played in this tournament. His opponents only managed to win 2 sets in the first 4 games. Daniil also easily passed through the 4th round as Grigor Dimitrov withdrew from the tournament after getting an injury in the 1st set. 

Daniil Medvedev's Wimbledon 2024 games





Daniil Medvedev — Jannik Sinner

3-2 (6:7, 6:4, 7:6, 2:6, 6:3)

Round 4

Daniil Medvedev — Grigor Dimitrov 

0-0 (5:3) injury

Round 3

Daniil Medvedev — Jan-Lennard Struff

3-1 (6:1, 6:3, 4:6, 7:6)

Round 2

Daniil Medvedev — Alexandre Müller

3-1 (6:7, 7:6, 6:4, 7:5)

Round 1

Daniil Medvedev — Aleksandar Kovacevic 

3-0 (6:3, 6:4, 6:2)

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is in the perfect form now. He's the reigning champion of 2 Grand Slam tournamets, namely the Wimbledon and the French Open. If he manages to defend the title he will be the 6th player in the Open Era history to win the grass and the clay Grand Slam tournaments in one season. It's going to be cool to join the legends like Laver, Borg, Nadal, Federer and Djokovic.

Alcaraz played a difficult game versus Frances Tiafoe in Round 3. Alcaraz could have been eliminated as Tiafoe had a 2-1 lead. However, Carlos managed to beat his opponent in a beautiful style. Alcaraz confidently won the next games, with Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul winning only 1 set each.

Carlos Alcaraz's Wimbledon 2024 games





Carlos Alcaraz — Tommy Paul

3-1 (5:7, 6:4, 6:2, 6:2)
Round 4

Carlos Alcaraz — Ugo Humbert 

3-1 (6:3, 6:4, 1:6, 7:5)
Round 3

Carlos Alcaraz — Frances Tiafoe

3-2 (5:7, 6:2, 4:6, 7:6, 6:2)
Round 2

Carlos Alcaraz — Aleksandar Vukic

3-0 (7:6, 6:2, 6:2)
Round 1

Carlos Alcaraz — Mark Lajal 

3-0 (7:6, 7:5, 6:2)

Medvedev — Alcaraz: Prediction for the Wimbledon 2024 Semi-final 

Medvedev have some problems playing on grass and clay. Hard fits him better. He's claimed many times that he can't fix the way he plays on the inconvenient surfaces, although he's been trying to for many years. Medvedev has been pretty unstable in the current tournament. He reached the quarter-finals without a good performance. He had a tough 5-sets game and then a 3-days pause. This can affect Daniil mentally. Medvedev's performance been unstable recently. He eliminated early from the 2024 French Open (clay) and the Halle tournament (grass).

Medvedev beat Alcaraz in the 2021 Wimbledon tournament. However, the Spanish player participated in this tournament for the first time and he wasn't ready. After several years we can see that Alcaraz plays well, without depending on the surface. He has lost only 1 out of his last 14 games. Alcaraz is in perfect form and in good mood. He's ready to win his opponent once again. Our prediction is the following: