Odds overview
Fiorentina to win are the favourites at 2.20, while Atalanta to win are at 3.15 and the draw at 3.65. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. For a handicap of 0, Fiorentina are shorter at 1.63 than Atalanta at 2.30.
Why Fiorentina are favourites
Fiorentina are the bookmakers' favourites: a home win is offered at 2.20, an Atalanta win at 3.15 and the draw at 3.65.
- Fiorentina have scored consistently, finding the net at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Atalanta have conceded regularly in the league: their opponents have scored in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have not lost to Atalanta in Florence in their last six meetings there.
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
After drawing with Napoli (1:1), Fiorentina suffered three consecutive defeats. They first lost to Genoa (1:2), then to two top-five clubs — Como (1:3) and Inter Milan (1:2). With four points, Fiorentina are in the relegation zone in 18th place, with a goal difference of 9:19.
- Fiorentina have failed to win 7 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Under 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Fiorentina's last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Fiorentina have failed to win and have conceded in 4 consecutive matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): David de Gea, Alejandro Jiménez, Radu Drăgușin, Vieri, Víctor Valdepeñas, Cher Ndour, Nicolò Fagioli, Marco Brescianini, Franco Mastantuono, Alieu Njie, Beto.
Absentees: Fabiano Parisi and Riccardo Sottil (both injured); Arthur Atta, Marin Pongračić and Luca Ranieri (all injured).
Form and Line-up Atalanta
On 22 October, Atalanta lost 0:2 away to Ajax in the UEFA Conference League without scoring. They had also lost 2:3 to Milan in Serie A on 18 October. In their most recent Serie A round, Atalanta played out a goal-filled 4:4 draw with Frosinone, with Nikola Krstović scoring twice and providing one assist.
- Atalanta have failed to win 6 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Atalanta's opponents have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Atalanta have conceded in 8 consecutive matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Marco Carnesecchi, Davide Zappacosta, Thomas Kristensen, Relja Obrić, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Gianluca Gaetano, Ederson, Eljif Elmas, Charles De Ketelaere, Jonathan Rowe, Nikola Krstović.
Absentees: Isak Hien, Sead Kolašinac, Odilon Kossounou and Giacomo Raspadori (all injured); Raoul Bellanova, Franck Kessié, Giorgio Scalvini and Kamaldeen Sulemana (all doubtful).
Teams' chances
A Fiorentina win is offered at 2.20, with fair odds of 2.30 and a fair probability of 43.5%. The corresponding figures are 3.65, 3.82 and 26.2% for the draw, and 3.15, 3.29 and 30.4% for an Atalanta win.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 2.20 | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.82 | 26.2% |
| Atalanta win | 3.15 | 3.29 | 30.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Fiorentina (-1.5) are offered at 3.60, shorter than Atalanta (-1.5) at 5.80. Fiorentina (+1.5) and Atalanta (+1.5) are available at 1.09 and 1.25 respectively. Fiorentina (-1) are at 3.00 against 5.00 for Atalanta (-1), while Fiorentina (+1) are at 1.12 against 1.35 for Atalanta (+1). On the zero-handicap line, Fiorentina (0) at 1.63 are shorter than Atalanta (0) at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | -1.5 | 5.80 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 3.00 | -1 | 5.00 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.63 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.50 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.50, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
29/100
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Fiorentina — 1.5 goals; Atalanta — 1.5 goals.
Fiorentina team goals
For Fiorentina, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.70 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.14. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is available at 3.30 and Over 1 goal at 1.30; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is at 1.90 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.85. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.42 is shorter than Over 2 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.30 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Atalanta team goals
For Atalanta, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 3.65 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.25. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.50 for Under 1 goal and 1.50 for Over 1 goal; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.60 for Under 1.5 goals and 2.25 for Over 1.5 goals. Under 2 goals at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Over 2 goals at 4.15.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.17 | 2 | 4.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Federico La Penna (Italy)
Matches – 17 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.8;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 17;
Matches with a penalty – 3 of 17.
