Odds overview
Lazio are favourites: the home win is available at 2.00, compared with 4.30 for the away win, while the draw is 3.20. Under 2.5 goals in the main totals market is priced at around 1.60, while Over 2.5 is 2.35, indicating an expectation of a restrained goalscoring game. Lazio Draw No Bet at 1.40 also has the edge over Genoa Draw No Bet at 2.95.
Why Lazio are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the home side: Lazio are available at 2.00 to win, the draw is priced at 3.20 and a Genoa victory is 4.30.
• Lazio began their Serie A campaign with a 1:0 away win over Bologna, demonstrating their ability to get a result even without an easy performance.
• Genoa lost 0:2 to Napoli in matchday 1 and sit in the lower part of the table, while historically their attack has regularly struggled to get shots on target against Lazio.
Form and Line-up Lazio
Gennaro Gattuso, who previously worked with the Italy national team, took charge in the summer, and his debut was painful: a 0:2 home defeat to Serie B side Mantova and elimination from the Coppa Italia, where Lazio reached the final a year ago. The cup was arguably the Romans’ shortest route into Europe, so the task has now become more difficult.
The first win under the new coach came in Bologna thanks to a goal from loan signing Davide Frattesi, who came off the bench and scored in the 59th minute from a Boulaye Dia assist.
Key numbers:
In 10 out of 10 Serie A home matches, Lazio and their opponents took no more than 10 corners.
In 8 of their last 10 home league matches, the team registered at least 4 shots on target.
In 8 of their last 10 home matches, Lazio committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable Lazio line-up (4-3-3): Christos Mandas — Adam Marusic, Danilo Dukhi, Oliver Provstgaard, Alfonso Pedraza — Davide Frattesi, Nicolo Rovella, Kenneth Taylor — Matteo Cancellieri, Boulaye Dia, Mattia Zaccagni.
Absentees: Patric, Samuel Gigot, Danilo Cataldi, Furlanetto and Romagnoli are all injured.
Form and Line-up Genoa
Genoa opened their league campaign with a 0:2 home defeat to Napoli, conceding both goals after the 80th minute. Before the league began, the team comfortably beat Ascoli 4:1 in the Coppa Italia, but the level of opposition was incomparable.
Key numbers:
In 9 of 10 Serie A away matches, Genoa and their opponents scored no more than 3 goals.
The team’s away matches have produced no more than 9 shots on target in 9 of 10 league games.
Their opening xG figure is 0.65 per match.
Probable Genoa line-up (3-4-2-1): Justin Bijlow — Alessandro Marcandalli, Leo Ostigard, Johan Vasquez — Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Morten Frendrup, Amorim, Mikael Egill Ellertsson — Tommaso Baldanzi, Vitinha — Lorenzo Colombo.
Absentees: Alan Matturro, Lorenzo Venturino, Joey Nuredini.
Team chances
A Lazio win is available at 2.00; the fair odds are 2.09, with a 47.8% probability. The draw is 3.20, with fair odds of 3.34 and a 29.9% probability. A Genoa win is 4.30; the fair odds are 4.49, with a probability of 22.3%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Lazio to win | 2.00 | 2.09 | 47.8% |
Draw | 3.20 | 3.34 | 29.9% |
Genoa to win | 4.30 | 4.49 | 22.3% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.60 and Over 2.5 at 2.35. For the line of 2, the odds are 2.05 for Under and 1.75 for Over. Under 3.5 is available at 1.20 and Over 3.5 at 4.15: the lower-total options are clearly favoured by the odds.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
2 | 2.05 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 4.15 |
Handicap prediction
Lazio (-1.5) is available at 3.85, while Genoa (+1.5) is 1.22. On the line of 1, Lazio (-1) is 2.95 compared with 7.30 for Genoa (-1), while Lazio (+1) is 1.05 and Genoa (+1) is 1.35. In the Draw No Bet market, Lazio are available at 1.40 and Genoa at 2.95.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.85 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.22 |
2.95 | -1 | 7.30 |
1.05 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.40 | 0 | 2.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No is available at 1.75 and is shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.03: the market considers it more likely that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.03 |
No | 1.75 |
Double chance prediction
1X is 1.25, 12 is 1.38 and X2 is 1.83. Based on the odds, 1X is the most likely double chance outcome, while X2 is rated more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.25 | 1.38 | 1.83 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lazio 1.5 goals, Genoa 0.5 goals.
Lazio team total
Lazio: Under 0.5 is 3.60 and Over 0.5 is 1.25. On the line of 1, Under is available at 2.40 and Over at 1.55; on 1.5, they are 1.60 and 2.30 respectively. Under 2 is priced at 1.20 and Over 2 at 3.90, so the odds consider a high-scoring performance by the home side less likely.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.60 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
1.60 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
1.20 | 2 | 3.90 |
Genoa team total
Genoa: Under 0.5 is available at 2.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.63. On the line of 1, Under is 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Over, while on 1.5 it is 1.22 compared with 3.85. The odds clearly lean more towards one goal or fewer from the visitors.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.20 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
1.47 | 1 | 2.60 |
1.22 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Ermanno Feliciani (Italy)
Matches – 13 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows – 2.5;
Matches with red cards – 0 out of 13;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 13.
