Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Lyon are favourites: the home win is available at 2.10 compared with 3.25 for the away win, while the draw is at 3.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is markedly more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the main handicap market, Lyon Draw No Bet at 1.60 is preferred to Rennes Draw No Bet at 2.35.
Why Lyon are favourites for the match
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.10 on Lyon to win, 3.80 on the draw and 3.25 on Rennes to win.
• Lyon have been near the top of the table at the start of the season: before Matchday 5, they are fourth with 8 points, unbeaten and with a goal difference of 6:2.
• According to 24score, the hosts conceded an average of 0.5 goals per game in the first four matchdays — the lowest goals-conceded figure in Ligue 1.
Form and Line-up Lyon
On 16 September, Lyon secured a 2:1 away win over Anderlecht in the Europa League thanks to goals from Noah Nartey and Keito Nakamura.
Lyon consistently create chances in home Ligue 1 matches: in 8 of their last 10 home games, they have registered at least 4 shots on target, while at least 9 corners were recorded in 9 of 10.
A congested schedule leaves the hosts only three days to prepare after their trip to Brussels, increasing the likelihood of selective rotation.
- Lyon have taken at least 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches
- Lyon have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches
- Lyon have committed no more than 13 fouls in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches
Probable Lyon line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif, Zachary Athekame, Ruben Kluivert, Moussa Niakhate, Mohamed Ouedraogo, Tyler Morton, Noah Nartey, Keito Nakamura, Ernest Nuamah, Lois Openda, Julien Duranville
Form and Line-up Rennes
On 16 September, Rennes drew 0:0 away to Sturm in the Europa League.
Rennes have featured in high-scoring Ligue 1 away matches: at least 3 goals were recorded in 9 of their last 10 away fixtures, while the Breton side’s opponents committed no more than 13 fouls per game in 8 of 10 cases.
The trip to Graz three days before the match in Lyon also reduces the visitors’ recovery and preparation time for the matchday.
- Rennes have registered at least 4 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches
- Rennes have attempted more than 11 shots in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches
- Rennes have been caught offside at least twice in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches
Probable Rennes line-up (4-3-3): Brice Samba, Bryan Reynolds, Charlie Cresswell, Anthony Rouault, Mahamadou Nagida, Mahdi Camara, Ludovic Blas, Sebastian Szymanski, Adrien Thomasson, Mousa Tamari, Esteban Lepaul
Team chances
The fair-odds assessment gives Lyon a 45.5% chance of winning at odds of 2.20, compared with 29.4% and 3.40 for Rennes; the draw is assessed at 25.1% and 3.98. The market offers 2.10 on the home win, 3.80 on the draw and 3.25 on the away win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon to win | 2.10 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.98 | 25.1% |
| Rennes to win | 3.25 | 3.40 | 29.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is markedly shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5 mark, Under 3.5 goals has the edge: 1.60 versus 2.30 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
Lyon (-1.5) is available at 3.25, while Rennes (-1.5) is at 5.60. At the 1.5 line, Lyon (+1.5) is shorter at 1.09 versus 1.30 for Rennes (+1.5). For the -1 handicap, the odds are 2.70 on Lyon (-1) and 4.90 on Rennes (-1); for the +1 handicap, they are 1.12 on Lyon (+1) and 1.40 on Rennes (+1). Lyon Draw No Bet is available at 1.60 and Rennes Draw No Bet at 2.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | -1.5 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.70 | -1 | 4.90 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.60 | 0 | 2.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.48 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.55, where at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.48 |
| No | 2.55 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lyon — 1.5 goals; Rennes — 1 goal.
Lyon team total
Lyon team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.12 is substantially shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 5.00; Over 1 goal is at 1.25 versus 3.55 for Under 1 goal. At the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.78 is slightly preferred to Under 1.5 goals at 1.98. At the 2-goal mark, Under 2 goals is shorter at 1.50, while Over 2 goals is at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.55 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.98 | 1.5 | 1.78 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Rennes team total
Rennes team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is markedly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.55. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is at 1.57 versus 2.30 for Under 1 goal, while at the 1.5 line the situation is reversed: Under 1.5 goals at 1.57 versus 2.30 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.57 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mathieu Vernice (France)
Matches — 17 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.9;
Matches with red cards — 6 of 17;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 17.
