Odds Overview
AC Milan are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Milan win is available at around 1.85, compared with 3.70 for a draw and 4.30 for an Atalanta win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. For handicap (0), AC Milan at 1.35 are favoured over Atalanta at 2.90.
Why AC Milan Are Match Favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: an AC Milan win is available at 1.85 (around 51.8% probability excluding the margin), a draw at 3.70 and an Atalanta win at 4.30.
- AC Milan are fifth in the table, while Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A.
- Atalanta have lost both of their away league matches.
- AC Milan have recorded two home wins without conceding — 2:0 against Venezia and 3:0 against Lecce.
Form and Line-up AC Milan
In the latest round of Serie A, AC Milan drew 1:1 away to Sassuolo. Ruben Amorim's side are still unbeaten in the league — three wins and three draws, with a goal difference of 11:5. Milan also performed well in the UEFA Europa League against Salzburg (4:0), with 19-year-old Alphadjo Cisse scoring a hat-trick.
- AC Milan have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in AC Milan's last 10 home Serie A matches.
- AC Milan have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-1-1): Mike Maignan, Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic, Pervis Estupinan, Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira, Christian Pulisic, Goncalo Ramos.
Unavailable: Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers (both injured); Pietro Terracciano (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Atalanta
In their previous match, Atalanta beat Venezia 3:1 at home, ending a run of three defeats. They also beat Pafos by the same score (3:1) in the UEFA Conference League, scoring three times in the first half.
- Atalanta's opponents have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in the club's last 10 away Serie A matches.
- There have been more than 2.5 offsides in Atalanta's last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have not lost the yellow-card count in their last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Marco Carnesecchi, Davide Zappacosta, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolasinac, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pasalic, Ederson, Charles De Ketelaere, Lazar Samardzic, Jonathan Rowe, Nikola Krstovic.
Unavailable: Giorgio Scalvini, Isak Hien, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Odilon Kossounou, Franck Kessie, Raoul Bellanova (all injured); Elif Elmas (suspended).
Each Team's Chances
An AC Milan win is available at 1.85; the fair odds are 1.93, corresponding to a 51.8% probability. A draw is offered at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a 25.9% probability. An Atalanta win is available at 4.30, with fair odds of 4.49 and a 22.3% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability excluding margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 1.85 | 1.93 | 51.8% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Atalanta win | 4.30 | 4.49 | 22.3% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 is a much stronger favourite than Over 3.5 goals at 2.70.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.77 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap Prediction
For the -1.5 handicap, AC Milan (-1.5) are available at 3.05 and Atalanta (-1.5) at 7.40. At +1.5, AC Milan (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.05, compared with 1.33 for Atalanta (+1.5). For the -1 handicap, AC Milan (-1) are offered at 2.50 and Atalanta (-1) at 6.40; at +1, the odds are 1.07 for AC Milan (+1) and 1.53 for Atalanta (+1). For handicap (0), AC Milan at 1.35 are considerably shorter than Atalanta at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | -1.5 | 7.40 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.33 |
| 2.50 | -1 | 6.40 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.53 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.90 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.70 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10, which means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/50
|
1/4
|
1/1
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
29/100
|
91/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1.5 goals for AC Milan and 1 goal for Atalanta.
AC Milan Team Total Goals
AC Milan team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.13 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.90; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is available at 1.25, compared with 3.50 for Under 1 goal. At 1.5 goals, the odds are close: Under 1.5 goals is 1.90 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.85. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is favoured at 1.42, while Over 2 goals is offered at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Atalanta Team Total Goals
Atalanta team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.45 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.78 is slightly favoured over Over 1 goal at 1.98. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.35 and Over 1.5 goals at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.78 | 1 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniele Chiffi (Italy)
Matches — 17 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.7;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 17;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 17.
