Odds overview
AC Milan are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.62, a draw at 4.05 and a Bologna win at 5.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is slightly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 1.97. For the handicap (0), AC Milan at 1.22 are strongly favoured over Bologna at 3.80.
Why AC Milan are favourites
The bookmakers make the hosts favourites: AC Milan are 1.62 to win, the draw is 4.05 and a Bologna victory is 5.50.
• AC Milan regularly threaten their opponents' goal: their xG figure of 1.88 ranks them 3rd among the league's 20 clubs ahead of the match.
• Bologna go into the round 13th in the table, with 8 points from eight matches and four defeats.
Form and Line-up AC Milan
AC Milan returned to winning ways in Serie A by beating Udinese 2:0 away on 25 October, having beaten Atalanta 3:2 at home in the previous round. Between those matches, they lost 0:3 to Bournemouth in the UEFA Europa League.
The tight schedule remains AC Milan's main challenge: less than 72 hours separate the trip to Udinese and the match against Bologna, forcing the hosts to manage their energy with recovery in mind.
- AC Milan have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in all 10 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
- AC Milan have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
- AC Milan's opponents have attempted fewer than 12.5 shots, including blocked attempts, in 8 of Milan's last 10 Serie A home matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-1-1): Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Sankhoun Diawara, Omari Hutchinson, Luka Modrić, Ardon Jashari, Davide Bartesaghi, Christian Pulisic, Gonçalo Ramos
Mario Gila, Diego Moreira and Adrien Rabiot's availability for the upcoming match remains unconfirmed, as the information about their absences related to the previous round.
Form and Line-up Bologna
In the last round, Bologna won 2:0 away to Cagliari without conceding, having previously beaten Lecce 2:1 on the road. Their only setback in this run was a 1:3 home defeat to Inter.
The visitors' matches have remained low-scoring over this stretch: Bologna's games have averaged 2.25 goals in total, the second-lowest figure in the league ahead of the match.
- There have been over 2.5 offsides in all 10 of Bologna's last 10 Serie A away matches.
- Bologna have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
- The two teams have combined for fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Bologna's last 10 Serie A away matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Łukasz Skorupski, Matteo Darmian, Nicolò Casale, Arthur Theate, Nadir Zortea, Lewis Ferguson, Tommaso Pobega, Juan Miranda, Federico Bernardeschi, Jens Odgaard, Nicolò Cambiaghi
The teams' chances
An AC Milan win has average odds of 1.62, fair odds of 1.69 and a probability of 59.0%. The corresponding figures for a draw are 4.05, 4.24 and 23.6%, and for a Bologna win they are 5.50, 5.75 and 17.4%: the market rates the hosts well ahead.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 1.62 | 1.69 | 59.0% |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.24 | 23.6% |
| Bologna win | 5.50 | 5.75 | 17.4% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is slightly shorter at 1.85 than Under 2.5 at 1.97. At 3.5 goals, the market favours Under 3.5 more strongly at 1.37, while Over 3.5 is offered at 2.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Handicap betting
AC Milan (-1.5) are available at 2.60 and Bologna (+1.5) at 1.45, suggesting the visitors are more likely to cover that handicap. At the one-goal line, Bologna (+1) are shorter at 1.80 than AC Milan (-1) at 2.03. With a handicap (0), AC Milan at 1.22 are clear favourites over Bologna at 3.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.45 | |
| 2.03 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.80 | |
| 1.22 | 0 | 3.80 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.82, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.92. The market narrowly favours both teams scoring; the second option means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.82 |
| No | 1.92 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
1/4
|
5/4
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
1/4
|
6/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: AC Milan — 1.5 goals; Bologna — 0.5 goals.
AC Milan team goals
AC Milan team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.10 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.50, while at the one-goal line, Over 1 at 1.20 is shorter than Under 1 at 4.10. At 1.5 goals, Over 1.5 at 1.72 is slightly shorter than Under 1.5 at 2.05. At the two-goal line, Under 2 at 1.57 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.35.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 4.10 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.57 | 2 | 2.35 |
Bologna team goals
Bologna team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.60 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.25. At the one-goal line, Under 1 at 1.50 is strongly favoured over Over 1 at 2.50, and the gap is wider still at 1.5 goals: Under 1.5 at 1.25 versus Over 1.5 at 3.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Juan Luca Sacchi (Italy)
Matches — 14 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 14.
