Odds overview
Udinese are the 1X2 favourites: the away win is available at 2.25, while the draw is at 3.20 and the home win at 3.40. In the main total market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is notably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. At handicap (0), Udinese Draw No Bet at 1.60 is shorter than Monza Draw No Bet at 2.35.
Why Udinese are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Udinese win is available at 2.25, the draw at 3.20 and a Monza win at 3.40.
- The contrast after Matchday 1: Udinese have one point and sit 11th, while Monza began with a defeat and are 19th; the hosts have failed to win 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- The visitors' defensive reliability: Udinese's opponents have scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 Serie A games, making life difficult for the hosts' attack.
Form and Line-up Monza
The return to the top flight began badly: 1:4 in Milan, although the team held their own before half-time — Gustavo Varela levelled the score in the 29th minute. But Inter scored three times in 15 minutes of the second half to put the game beyond doubt.
Ivan Juric was forced by squad issues to field a young side with six league debutants. Monza reached Serie A through the Serie B play-offs after finishing third in the regular season.
Key numbers:
At home, Monza have scored no more than one goal in 9 of 10 Serie A matches.
No more than 8 shots on target were recorded in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
In 9 of the last 10 matches at the U-Power Stadium, the two teams combined for no more than 26.5 shots.
Probable Monza line-up (3-4-2-1): Samuel Pizzignacco — Patrick Kouadio, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Andrea Carboni — Samuele Birindelli, Marten Foe Ondoa, Muhamed Mout, Ricardo Mangas — Andrea Colpani, Adam Bakoune — Gustavo Varela.
Form and Line-up Udinese
Udinese began the league season with a home draw against Como (1:1), and a week earlier beat Padova in the Coppa Italia (1:0) thanks to a Keinan Davis goal. Before the start of the season, the coaching staff noted the need to reshape the team following several departures — the club sold Arthur Atta for €25m in the summer.
In away Serie A matches, Udinese's opponents registered at least 4 shots on target in 8 of 10 games, but received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of 10 — the Friulians defend positionally rather than through fouls.
Key numbers:
No more than two goals were scored in 8 of Udinese's last 10 Serie A matches.
Their opponents have scored no more than one goal in 9 of the team's last 10 league games.
Udinese have taken no more than 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Probable Udinese line-up (3-4-2-1): Maduka Okoye — James Abankwah, Matteo Palma, Oumar Solet — Mergim Vojvoda, Jesper Karlstrom, Jakub Piotrowski, Hassane Kamara — Nicolo Zaniolo, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp — Idrissa Gueye.
Absentees: Christian Kabasele.
The teams' chances
A Monza win is available at 3.40; fair odds are 3.57, with a 28.0% probability. The draw is at 3.20, with fair odds of 3.36 and a 29.7% probability. An Udinese win at 2.25 is the most likely outcome: fair odds of 2.36 and 42.3%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Monza win | 3.40 | 3.57 | 28.0% |
Draw | 3.20 | 3.36 | 29.7% |
Udinese win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the 2-goal mark, Over 2 goals at 1.70 is preferred to Under 2 goals at 2.10. For the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.20 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 goals at 4.20.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
2 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 4.20 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Monza (-1.5) are 7.10, higher than for Udinese (-1.5) at 4.40. Of Monza (+1.5) at 1.16 and Udinese (+1.5) at 1.05, the latter is slightly shorter. Udinese (-1) at 3.55 is preferred to Monza (-1) at 6.20, while at the 1-goal line, Udinese (+1) at 1.07 is shorter than Monza (+1) at 1.25. At handicap (0), Udinese Draw No Bet at 1.60 is shorter than Monza Draw No Bet at 2.35.
Home | Handicap | Away |
7.10 | -1.5 | 4.40 |
1.16 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
6.20 | -1 | 3.55 |
1.25 | 1 | 1.07 |
2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.95, so the scenario in which at least one team does not score is marginally more likely.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.95 |
No | 1.80 |
Double chance prediction
X2 has the shortest odds at 1.35; 12 is at 1.37 and 1X at 1.65. The market rates the scenario without a Monza win slightly more highly than the outcome without a draw.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.65 | 1.37 | 1.35 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Monza — 1 goal, Udinese — 1 goal.
Monza team total
Monza: at a team total of 0.5, Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.65 is preferred to Over 1 goal at 2.17. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.28 is notably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
1.65 | 1 | 2.17 |
1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Udinese team total
Udinese: at a team total of 0.5, Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.25. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.65 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.15. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.52 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
1.52 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta (Italy)
Matches — 16 (Serie B, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 16;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 16.
