Odds overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites at 1.45 to win, while a draw at 5.10 and a Lyon win at 6.20 are seen as less likely outcomes. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. The handicap market also points towards a home advantage: Paris Saint-Germain (-1) at 1.65 looks more likely than Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) at 2.10, while Lyon (+1.5) at 1.72 is favoured over Lyon (+1) at 2.17; Paris Saint-Germain (0) is available at around 1.16, compared with 4.30 for Lyon (0).
Why Paris Saint-Germain are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Paris Saint-Germain are 1.45 to win, a draw is available at 5.10 and a Lyon victory is offered at 6.20.
- Paris Saint-Germain score an average of 2 goals per game and are joint second for goals scored in Ligue 1.
- Lyon go into this round after a 0:3 away defeat to Hoffenheim in the UEFA Europa League, with minimal time to recover.
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
In their most recent match, Paris Saint-Germain beat Barcelona 4:2 in the UEFA Champions League, creating numerous chances.
- Paris Saint-Germain have had over 12.5 shots in their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have not lost the corners count in their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Matvei Safonov, Achraf Hakimi, Willian Pacho, Lucas Hernandez, Ilya Zabarnyi, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, João Neves, Désiré Doué, Ferran Torres, Maghnes Akliouche.
Marquinhos, Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvarackhelija will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Lyon
Lyon have been solid defensively under Paulo Fonseca: they concede an average of 0.71 goals per game and are joint first in Ligue 1 by that measure.
- Lyon have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
- Lyon have attempted fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
- Lyon have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif, Steeve Kango, Clinton Mata, Felix Bacher, Ruben Kluivert, Mads Bidstrup, Tanner Tessmann, Noah Nartey, Kaïl Boudache, Rémi Himbert, Keito Nakamura.
The teams' chances
Paris Saint-Germain are 1.45 to win; their fair odds are 1.52, implying a 65.9% probability. A draw is offered at 5.10, with fair odds of 5.34 and an 18.7% probability. Lyon are 6.20 to win; their fair odds are 6.49, implying a 15.4% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 1.45 | 1.52 | 65.9% |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
| Lyon win | 6.20 | 6.49 | 15.4% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.75 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.40, making the higher-goals option the clear favourite. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.82 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.82 | 2.00 |
Handicap betting
Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) are offered at 2.10 and Lyon (+1.5) at 1.72. At the one-goal handicap line, Paris Saint-Germain (-1) are 1.65, while Lyon (+1) are 2.17. At the zero handicap, Paris Saint-Germain (0) are 1.16, compared with 4.30 for Lyon (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.72 | |
| 1.65 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.17 | |
| 1.16 | 0 | 4.30 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.60 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30; the latter means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
7/50
|
7/4
|
| 888sport |
3/25
|
17/100
|
9/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: 2.5 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 1 goal for Lyon.
Paris Saint-Germain team total
Paris Saint-Germain team total: Under 0.5 goals is 8.00 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.04. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is 2.25 and Over 2 goals is 1.60; at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.72 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.05. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 goals is available at 1.35 and Over 3 goals at 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.25 | 2 | 1.60 |
| 1.72 | 2.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.35 | 3 | 2.90 |
Lyon team total
Lyon team total: Under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.50 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.67 and Over 1 goal is 2.13; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 1.33 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jérôme Brisard (France)
Matches — 21 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 5 out of 21;
Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 21.
