Odds Overview
Sunderland are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.65, while the draw is at 4.15 and the away win at 5.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. In the handicap markets, the odds for the home handicap (-1.5) are 2.65, higher than the 1.45 for the away handicap (+1.5); on the 0 line, the home handicap (0) is 1.25 versus 3.55 for the away handicap (0).
Why Sunderland Are Favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Sunderland win is available at 1.65, the draw at 4.15 and an AZ Alkmaar win at 5.10.
- Their defence supports the hosts' status: in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Sunderland's opponents scored no more than one goal.
- The team have maintained a positive recent record: in their last five competitive matches in all competitions, Sunderland have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats.
Form and Line-up Sunderland
In their latest match against Arsenal (0:2), Sunderland missed the chance to open the scoring when Enzo Le Fee failed to convert a penalty, after which they conceded the first goal.
At home, the English side tend to favour pragmatic football: no more than three goals have been scored in 9 of their last 10 matches on home soil.
- In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have taken no more than 5 corners.
- At least 22 fouls have been recorded in 8 of Sunderland's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- No more than 3 goals have been scored in 9 of Sunderland's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Sunderland line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Reinildo Mandava, Noah Sadiki, Kevin Danso, Dan Ballard, Nilson Angulo, Granit Xhaka, Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fee, Thomas Meunier.
Form and Line-up AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar have been consistently picking up points: in their last five Eredivisie matches, the Dutch club have recorded three wins and two draws, with their latest match against Willem II ending 1:1. Overall, the team are unbeaten in 10 matches in all competitions, and at least two goals have been scored in each of those 10 games.
Head coach Leroy Echteld raised the issue of match tempo during preparations for the domestic league, pointing to the need for more proactive play after the break.
- AZ Alkmaar have won the corner count in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least 9 corners have been taken in 8 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- AZ Alkmaar's opponents have taken no more than 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
Probable AZ Alkmaar line-up (4-2-3-1): Jari De Busser, Elijah Dijkstra, Wouter Goes, Lewis Schouten, Mateo Chavez, Jordy Clasie, Peer Koopmeiners, Calvin Stengs, Dave Kwakman, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Mexx Meerdink.
Kees Smit and Denso Kasius, who have been recovering from injuries, are doubts.
Team Chances
A Sunderland win at 1.65 corresponds to a no-margin estimate of 58.1% and fair odds of 1.72. The draw at 4.15 is assessed at a 23.1% probability and fair odds of 4.33, while an AZ Alkmaar win at 5.10 is assessed at 18.8% and 5.32.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.1% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 5.10 | 5.32 | 18.8% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.72 versus 2.12 for Under 2.5 goals, indicating that a higher-scoring match is more expected. The situation is reversed on the 3.5-goal line: Under 3.5 goals is 1.45 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap Prediction
The home handicap (-1.5) is available at 2.65, while the away handicap (+1.5) is at 1.45. On the 1-goal line, the home handicap (-1) is 2.07 and the away handicap (+1) is 1.75. In the Draw No Bet market, the home handicap (0) is available at 1.25 versus 3.55 for the away handicap (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | |
| +1.5 | 1.45 | |
| 2.07 | -1 | |
| +1 | 1.75 | |
| 1.25 | 0 | 3.55 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 is favoured over Both teams to score - No at 2.10: the market is more likely to expect goals from both teams than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
1/5
|
3/2
|
| William Hill |
11/100
|
1/5
|
17/10
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
11/50
|
3/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Sunderland — 1.5 goals; AZ Alkmaar — 1 goal.
Sunderland Team Total
Sunderland team total: Over 0.5 goals is 1.08 versus 5.80 for Under 0.5 goals; on the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.18 and Under 1 is 4.15. On the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 1.68 for Over 1.5 and 2.12 for Under 1.5, while on the 2-goal line, Over 2 is 2.25 versus 1.62 for Under 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 4.15 | 1 | 1.18 |
| 2.12 | 1.5 | 1.68 |
| 1.62 | 2 | 2.25 |
AZ Alkmaar Team Total
AZ Alkmaar team total: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.50 and Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.60 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.25, while on the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.27 versus 3.35 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jeremie Pignard (France)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.8;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 7;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 7.
