Odds overview
Toulouse are favourites: a home win is offered at 1.65, a draw at around 4.20 and a Troyes win at 5.10. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.63, compared with 2.30 for Under 2.5 goals. In the handicap markets, Toulouse (0) at 1.25 are much shorter than Troyes (0) at 3.55.
Why Toulouse are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear edge: a Toulouse win is offered at 1.65, compared with 4.20 for a draw and 5.10 for a Troyes win.
- Toulouse are mid-table in Ligue 1, with 9 points and 12 goals from their first seven matches, while Troyes are second from bottom.
- Troyes concede an average of 2.29 goals per league match — the second-worst defensive record in the division.
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 12 consecutive meetings with Troyes.
Form and Line-up Toulouse
In their latest Ligue 1 match, Toulouse comfortably beat Le Mans 3:0 away from home. Before that, they snatched draws against Monaco (2:2) and Lorient, coming back twice from 0:2 against the latter, and beat Le Havre (3:2) thanks to two goals from Tengstedt.
- Toulouse have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- Toulouse have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
- More than 2.5 yellow cards have been shown in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 home league matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Guillaume Restes, Rafik Messali, Mark McKenzie, Seny Koumbassa, Christ Tapé, Aron Dønnum, Niko Sigur, Cristian Cásseres, Thomas Jørgensen, Casper Tengstedt, Jacen Russell-Rowe.
Form and Line-up Troyes
Troyes lost their previous match at home to Lens 1:3. It was a fifth consecutive defeat for Stéphane Dumont's side, who scored only three goals and conceded 15 over that run.
- Troyes' opponents have scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- Troyes have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away games in Ligue 1.
- More than 2.5 offsides have been recorded in 9 of Troyes' last 10 away league matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Patrick Beach, Lucas Maronnier, Adrien Monfray, Michell Díaz, Paolo Gozzi, Karim Dermane, Mouhamed Diop, Merwan Ifnaoui, Antoine Mille, Timothé Nkada, Renaud Ripart.
Absentees: Anis Ouzenadji, Ismaël Boura, Yvann Titi (all injured).
Teams' chances
A Toulouse win is offered at 1.65, with a margin-free probability of 58.3% and fair odds of 1.72. A draw is quoted at 4.20, with a margin-free probability of 22.9% and fair odds of 4.37. A Troyes win is available at 5.10, with a margin-free probability of 18.8% and fair odds of 5.31.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.3% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.37 | 22.9% |
| Troyes win | 5.10 | 5.31 | 18.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.53 is shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Toulouse (-1.5) are offered at 2.60, compared with 8.50 for Troyes (-1.5). At the 1.5-goal line, Toulouse (+1.5) at 1.04 are shorter than Troyes (+1.5) at 1.47. At the -1 line, Toulouse (-1) are available at 2.02 against 7.10 for Troyes (-1); at the +1 line, it is 1.05 for Toulouse (+1) and 1.78 for Troyes (+1). With a handicap of 0, Toulouse (0) at 1.25 are much shorter than Troyes (0) at 3.55.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | -1.5 | 8.50 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.47 |
| 2.02 | -1 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.25 | 0 | 3.55 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.62 and appears more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.20, which requires at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
11/50
|
69/50
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
11/50
|
13/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Toulouse — 2 goals, Troyes — 1 goal.
Toulouse team goals
For Toulouse's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.07 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 6.30. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is available at 1.60 against 2.25 for Under 1.5; at 2 goals, Under 2 is 1.70 against 2.10 for Over 2. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.40 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.70.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.30 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | 2 | 2.10 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
Troyes team goals
For Troyes' team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.45 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.10, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.32 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.10.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.70 | 1 | 2.10 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.10 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Geoffrey Kubler (France)
Matches — 5 (Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.6;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 5;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 5.
