Odds Overview
Paris FC are slight favourites: Paris FC to win is priced at 2.45, compared with 2.85 for Troyes to win, while the draw is 3.45. In the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is clearly preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. On the handicap 0 line, Paris FC Draw No Bet at 1.78 is priced lower than Troyes Draw No Bet at 2.05.
Why Paris FC Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers give the edge to the visitors: Paris FC to win is offered at odds of 2.45.
Troyes' opponents regularly create chances around their goal: in the last 10 Ligue 1 matches, their opponents have had at least 4 shots on target.
In Paris FC's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, their opponents received no more than two yellow cards, reflecting a restrained level of defensive aggression against the visitors.
Form and Line-up Troyes
Troyes went unbeaten in pre-season, recording four wins and two draws. In the match against Auxerre, new signings Patrick Beach and Iron Gomis went straight into the starting line-up, and the team equalised after Gomis' corner.
Troyes have not won any of their last 10 home matches and have never committed more than 12 fouls in a game in that run, maintaining a careful pattern of play.
Key numbers:
Troyes scored no more than 1 goal in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Troyes took no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Troyes had fewer than 13.5 shots in all 10 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Patrick Beach — Yvann Titi — Adrien Monfray — Junior Diaz — Ismael Boura — Rafiki Said Ifnaoui — Iron Gomis — Mouhamed Diop — Yadaly Diaby Diawara — Mahamadou Kone — Renaud Ripart
Form and Line-up Paris FC
Paris FC changed head coach in the summer, appointing Liam Rosenior, while the club spent more than EUR60 million on transfers. However, their build-up play took time to come together in friendlies: against Mainz the team offered almost no threat on goal, then they also lost to Angers.
In 9 of Paris FC's last 10 away league matches, the games were low-scoring — the teams did not go Over 3.5 goals.
Key numbers:
Paris FC scored no more than 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Paris FC had no more than 5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Paris FC took no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Kevin Trapp — Adama Camara — Diego Coppola — Moustapha Mbow — Thibault De Smet — Rudy Matondo — Pierre Lees-Melou — Zabi Gueu — Ilan Kebbal — Lassine Sinayoko — Luca Koleosho
Team Chances
Paris FC to win is rated higher: the average odds are 2.45, the no-margin estimate is 2.57 and the probability is 38.9%. For Troyes to win, the figures are 2.85, 2.99 and 33.5%, while for the draw they are 3.45, 3.62 and 27.6%, respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Troyes to win | 2.85 | 2.99 | 33.5% |
Draw | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.6% |
Paris FC to win | 2.45 | 2.57 | 38.9% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.72, compared with 2.12 for Under 2.5 goals. On the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals looks the favourite at 1.45, while Over 3.5 goals is priced at 2.60.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap Prediction
Troyes (-1.5) at 4.70 is priced slightly higher than Paris FC (-1.5) at 4.30; on the 1.5 handicap, the prices are close — 1.17 for Troyes (+1.5) and 1.14 for Paris FC (+1.5). Paris FC (-1) at 3.60 is shorter than Troyes (-1) at 4.30, while Paris FC (+1) at 1.20 is shorter than Troyes (+1) at 1.25. On the handicap 0 line, Paris FC Draw No Bet is preferred at 1.78, compared with 2.05 for Troyes Draw No Bet.
Home team | Handicap | Away team |
4.70 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
1.17 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
4.30 | -1 | 3.60 |
1.25 | 1 | 1.20 |
2.05 | 0 | 1.78 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.57 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.35: the second option implies that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.57 |
No | 2.35 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are on 12 at 1.33. X2 is offered at 1.45, while 1X is priced at 1.57.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.57 | 1.33 | 1.45 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Troyes — 1.5 goals, Paris FC — 1.5 goals.
Troyes Team Total
Troyes: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is substantially lower than Under 0.5 goals at 3.50; on the 1 line, Over 1 goal at 1.55 is preferred to Under 1 goal at 2.35. For 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is priced lower — 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Over 1.5 goals, while on the 2 line it is Under 2 goals at 1.23 against Over 2 goals at 3.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.50 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
1.23 | 2 | 3.70 |
Paris FC Team Total
Paris FC: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is notably lower than Under 0.5 goals at 3.95; Over 1 goal at 1.42 is lower than Under 1 goal at 2.65. On the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.70 is priced lower than Over 1.5 goals at 2.10, while on the 2 line it is Under 2 goals at 1.28 against Over 2 goals at 3.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
1.70 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marc Bollengier (France)
Matches — 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 9 of 16.
