Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Europa League match.
AZ Alkmaar's unexpected victory over Ajax (2:1) extended their unbeaten run to four matches. Bookmakers remain cautious about the Dutch side's chances away at Ludogorets Razgrad, despite the Bulgarian team's clear slump in results, affecting their standing in the Europa League.
Ludogorets Razgrad
Despite drawing with Lazio (0:0), a result in which Ludogorets were frankly lucky to take a point (0.16–1.11 in xG and 0–6 in shots on target), they remain at the bottom of the tournament table. Across five rounds in the overall stage, the team have scored just once—a tally matched only by Dynamo Kyiv. At home, the Bulgarians were defeated by Slavia Prague (0:2) and Athletic Bilbao (1:2)—an underdog struggling to hold their own against stronger opponents.
AZ Alkmaar
Since early November, AZ Alkmaar have been working to catch up with the top eight of the Europa League. At home against a well-drilled Galatasaray side (1:1), who are in the top five of the tournament, they were unafraid to take risks, generating 1.67 xG with 12 shots. Against Ajax (2:1), Maarten Martens' bold plan even secured victory: AZ Alkmaar created 1.49 xG, with Peer Koopmeiners involved in both scoring moves.
Ludogorets Razgrad vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
In Razgrad, Ludogorets are likely to struggle with consistency once again. It’s prudent to back AZ Alkmaar with a reliable handicap, as it’s crucial for them to maintain momentum over the course.