Why should a game between two teams with 6–1 records finish with a low points total? The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL in scoring, while the Minnesota Vikings have the best defence. But another factor matters more here: the hosts rarely let their games become an exchange of touchdowns. Their offence cannot keep pace with their defence, while the visitors still need to find a way through a defensive unit that gives almost nobody room to operate.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings have a clear task: force opponents into long drives and prevent quick touchdowns. Across seven games, the Vikings have conceded just 13.3 points per game. None of their last five opponents have scored more than 19 points against them, and the combined total has stayed under 44.5 each time. Their own offence has not been prolific either: 15 points against Detroit (15:19) and 16 against the Indianapolis Colts (16:10). Kyler Murray will now miss this game. Carson Wentz will replace him, and the coaches will need to be particularly mindful of the risk of turnovers and difficult deep passes.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are a very different proposition. Josh Allen leads an offence averaging 33.3 points per game, so we cannot expect an under bet to land easily. Four of the Bills' last five games have produced more than 44.5 combined points. Against the Minnesota Vikings, however, Allen will find it harder to get time to throw. Two of the visitors' offensive linemen — Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson — are doubtful. How much time Allen has to pass depends on them. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer is also certain to miss the game. The hosts' defence could exploit these problems and force the Bills to settle for short gains more often.
Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
The game will not necessarily be slow-paced. The Buffalo Bills can gain yards in big chunks, but against this defence they will have to earn every trip to the end zone. The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, do not look like a team capable of keeping up in a shootout: their last five games have each produced no more than 39 points. Our pick is therefore under 44.5 points. For that bet to land, the key is not to stop Allen completely, but to prevent the Bills from pulling away early and forcing the hosts to take risks.
