Odds overview
Ajax are modest favourites: an Ajax win is available at around 2.15, compared with 3.15 for Atalanta and 3.75 for the draw. In the totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. On the handicap (0), Ajax are available at 1.60 and Atalanta at 2.30.
Why Ajax are favourites
Bookmakers favour the home side: an Ajax win is offered at 2.15, while an Atalanta win is available at 3.15. The draw is quoted at 3.75.
- Ajax come into the match after a convincing 5:2 league win over Groningen.
- Atalanta lost their most recent away match in Serie A to Milan, 2:3.
Form and Line-up Ajax
Ajax lost 1:2 away to Hajduk Split in the opening round of the UEFA Conference League league phase, having previously drawn 1:1 with NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie.
At home, Ajax have had six consecutive halves with over 1.5 goals.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 8 of Ajax's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Ajax's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- The teams have combined for more than 8.5 shots on target in 8 of Ajax's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable Ajax line-up (4-3-2-1): Marc-André ter Stegen, Lucas Rosa, Aaron Bouwman, Dies Janse, Owen Wijndal, Jorthy Mokio, Sofyan Amrabat, Davy Klaassen, Julian Brandt, Oscar Gloukh, Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida.
Yves Bissouma is not registered for the UEFA Conference League league phase, Kasper Dolberg is recovering from knee surgery, and Simon Adingra missed the previous round of the competition because he was not fully fit.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
Atalanta began their European campaign with a 3:1 win over Pafos, and before losing to Milan in Serie A, they beat Venezia by the same 3:1 scoreline.
After the opening round, Atalanta sit fourth in the UEFA Conference League with 3 points, and they have conceded no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Atalanta have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Atalanta's opponents have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 8 of Atalanta's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 9.5 corners in 8 of Atalanta's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Atalanta line-up (4-2-3-1): Marco Carnesecchi, Raoul Bellanova, Rasmus Nissen Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Ederson, Mario Pašalić, Lazar Samardžić, Charles De Ketelaere, Jonathan Rowe, Nikola Krstović.
The teams' chances
An Ajax win is offered at 2.15, with fair odds of 2.26 and a 44.3% probability. The draw is available at 3.75, with fair odds of 3.93 and a 25.4% probability. An Atalanta win is quoted at 3.15, with fair odds of 3.31 and a 30.3% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 2.15 | 2.26 | 44.3% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.93 | 25.4% |
| Atalanta win | 3.15 | 3.31 | 30.3% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At the 3.5-goal line, the opposite is true: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap betting
Ajax (-1.5) at 3.55 is favoured over Atalanta (-1.5) at 5.70. At the 1.5-goal line, Ajax (+1.5) are available at 1.09 and Atalanta (+1.5) at 1.25. Ajax (-1) are offered at 2.90, compared with 4.90 for Atalanta (-1), while Ajax (+1) are at 1.12 and Atalanta (+1) at 1.35. On the zero-handicap line, Ajax (0) are available at 1.60 and Atalanta (0) at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | -1.5 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.90 | -1 | 4.90 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.60 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.52 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.45: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.52 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
| William Hill |
7/20
|
1/4
|
73/100
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
1/4
|
73/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Ajax — 1.5 goals; Atalanta — 1.5 goals.
Ajax team total goals
Ajax team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.14 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 4.70; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.27 compared with 3.40 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 at 1.90 and Over 1.5 at 1.85. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.42 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.40 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Atalanta team total goals
Atalanta team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.25 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 at 3.50, while Over 1 at 1.50 is favoured over Under 1 at 2.45. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Over 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.18 is much shorter than Over 2 at 4.10.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.45 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.18 | 2 | 4.10 |
