The match of Matchday 7 of the group stage of the Champions League 2025/26 between Chelsea (England) and Pafos (Cyprus) will take place on 21 January at Stamford Bridge in London. Chelsea vs Pafos: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Chelsea
Chelsea suffered their second defeat of the current group stage in the previous round. Playing away, the club lost 1:2 to Atalanta, ending a run of four matches without defeat in this competition (three wins and one draw). It is also worth noting that the side conceded in six of their eight previous Champions League matches. At the same time they found the net in 21 previous matches on the European stage. Chelsea sit in 13th position and, if they win this encounter, will secure progression to the knockout phase. There is a chance to reach the top eight, from which the club are two points behind.
- In their 14 previous Champions League games Chelsea drew only once (8 wins and 5 defeats).
- At least three goals were scored in 5 of the last 6 matches for Chelsea in this competition.
- Chelsea won 6 of their 7 previous home matches in this European competition.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-5-1)
Robert Sanchez – Marc Cucurella, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto, Tosin Adarabioyo – Andrey Santos, Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer, Moises Caicedo, Pedro Neto – Liam Delap.
Defender Levi Colwill and midfielder Romeo Lavia will miss the game due to injuries. In January head coach Enzo Maresca was dismissed. Liam Rosenior was appointed in his place.
Pafos
Pafos also played their previous tournament match away and suffered their second defeat in the group stage. The club visited Juventus and lost 0:2. Before that the visitors had gone three matches unbeaten in the Champions League (one win and two draws). Pafos occupy 26th place in the standings and are only one point from the qualification zone. The team will minimize its chances of finishing in the top 24 if they lose this match. It is also worth adding that Pafos play matches with an average of 2.2 goals, and only two opponents have a similarly low scoring rate.
- In their 12 previous games in this European competition the visitors suffered only 2 defeats (5 wins and 5 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 9 of Pafos’s last 12 Champions League matches.
- Pafos failed to score more than 1 goal in 6 of their 7 previous matches in this tournament.
Potential Pafos Lineup (3-4-3)
Neofytos Michael – Derrick Luckassen, David Luiz, Bruno Langa – Joao Correia, Ivan Sunjic, Pepe, Vlad Dragomir – Jaja, Mislav Orsic, Anderson.
Defender Pedrao is out injured. Head coach Juan Carlos Carcedo left his post in January and moved to Spartak. Albert Celades was appointed in his place.
Referee
Eric Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow/Red Cards Shown (Including Second Yellows) – 16;
Average Yellow/Red Cards Per Match – 2.7;
Red Cards Shown – 1;
Fouls Average Per Match – 21;
Penalties – 33%.
Chelsea vs Pafos: Match Prediction
Pafos urgently need points and must win at least one of their remaining two group-stage matches. Winning in England will be incredibly difficult, especially given that the opponent is much stronger and more experienced, and is very good at their stadium not only in the Premier League but also on the continental stage. Chelsea have won 6 of their 7 previous Champions League matches at Stamford Bridge, and have suffered only 2 defeats in their last 62 European matches at group or extended stage.
We will not risk taking a straight win for the English side; Pafos know how to organize their defense and could keep a clean sheet in the upcoming meeting. In this group stage Pafos conceded at away venues only to Juventus. At the same time the visitors’ attack is weak and failed to register a single scoring shot in all away matches of the Champions League main stage.
Chelsea not only rarely lose at home in this competition, but they also concede little. In their 14 previous home matches in the Champions League the side kept a clean sheet 9 times. Therefore, taking everything above into account, we will give preference to the forecast — Pafos Under 0.5 goals.
Prediction: Pafos Under 0.5 goals
