The return leg of the 2025/26 Conference League play-off tie between Fiorentina (Italy) and Jagiellonia Bialystok (Poland) will take place on 26 February at the Artemio Franchi Stadium in Florence. The score in the first leg was 3:0 in favour of Fiorentina. Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Fiorentina
This tie is already effectively settled. Fiorentina thrashed the Polish side 3:0 on their own ground. Now, to progress in the bracket, the home team simply need to avoid losing by more than two goals at their own stadium. It is worth noting that the club have won seven of their last 10 matches in this European competition, and they have never lost a Conference League game by a margin of at least two goals. Interestingly, the Florence-based side are playing in this tournament for the fourth time, and in each of the previous three editions they reached at least the semi-finals.
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in eight of the Italians' previous 11 matches in this European competition.
- At least one of the sides failed to score in five of Fiorentina's last seven Conference League matches.
- The Florence-based club won eight of their previous 10 home matches in this tournament.
Potential Fiorentina Lineup (4-5-1)*
Luca Lezzerini - Luca Ranieri, Niccolo Fortini, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens - Jack Harrison, Giovanni Fabbian, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Jacopo Fazzini - Roberto Piccoli.
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok had complete territorial control in the first leg (71%), but they showed a total lack of cutting edge in attack - zero shots on target. As a result, the visitors have been left with virtually no chance of reaching the next round, as they now have to win in Italy by four goals or more. If a shock does happen and Jagiellonia Bialystok win by a three-goal margin, extra time will be played. It is also worth noting that the club have gone three straight Conference League matches without a win (one draw and two defeats), and they scored only one goal across that run. Last season, the team reached the quarter-finals of this European competition, but this time, it looks as though their campaign will end in the play-offs.
- The Polish side avoided defeat in 12 of their previous 14 matches in this tournament (six wins and six draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in six of Jagiellonia Bialystok's last eight Conference League matches.
- The club conceded no more than one goal in each of their previous six away matches in this European competition.
Potential Jagiellonia Bialystok Lineup (4-4-2)*
Slawomir Abramowicz - Bartlomiej Wdowik, Bernardo Vital, Andy Pelmard, Norbert Wojtuszek - Alejandro Pozo, Leon Flach, Kamil Jozwiak, Bartosz Mazurek - Samed Bazdar, Jesus Imaz.
Due to suspension, forward Afimico Pululu and midfielder Taras Romanczuk are unavailable.
Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Bialystok: Match Prediction
The Italians showed a high level of composure in front of goal in the first leg, converting almost every chance they had. Three unanswered goals should be more than enough to take them through in Europe. At the same time, we do not expect the return leg to be any less open, because the visitors have no choice but to push forward and take risks, leaving themselves exposed.
In their previous 18 home Conference League matches, the Italians have suffered only one defeat. Moreover, across that run Fiorentina scored two or more goals on 15 occasions. At least three goals were scored in seven of the last nine home matches for the Florence-based side in this European competition. Jagiellonia Bialystok found the net in five of their previous six away games in this tournament, but they also conceded in 10 of their last 12 away Conference League matches. We believe the opponents will once again score three or more goals between them.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI from their previous match in this tournament is shown.
