Odds Overview
Arsenal are overwhelming favourites: an Arsenal win is available at 1.08, while a draw is quoted at 12.00 and a Fleetwood Town win at 28.00. Odds in the main 3.5-goal totals market are almost level: Under 3.5 goals is 1.88 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.86.
Why Arsenal Are Favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Arsenal are available to win at 1.08, a draw is quoted at 12.00, and a Fleetwood Town win at 28.00.
• Arsenal have performed confidently across all competitions, going unbeaten in their last five competitive matches, including games against Bayern Munich, Everton and Lille.
• The hosts play in a lower division, and their recent five-match unbeaten run came against opponents such as Exeter City and Barnsley, underlining the gap in quality between them and such a strong opponent.
Form and Line-up Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town take a restrained approach in home EFL Cup matches. They work hard without the ball and have committed at least 10 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home cup games, while winning fewer corners than their opponents and rarely straying offside.
- Fleetwood Town have won 8 of their last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 9 of Fleetwood Town's last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- There have been over 2.5 cards in 9 of Fleetwood Town's last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
Probable line-up (3-1-4-2): Jay Lynch, Shaun Rooney, Conor Haughey, Finley Potter, Harrison Neal, Lewis McCann, Crispin McLean, Mark Helm, Jake Batty, Ched Evans, Ronan Coughlan
Form and Line-up Arsenal
Arsenal keep tight control of their away cup matches. They have allowed opponents no more than four shots on target in 8 of their 10 away matches in the competition, while maintaining strong discipline and receiving fewer than three bookings per game.
- Arsenal have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
- There have been fewer than 25.5 attempted shots in 8 of Arsenal's last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 cards in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Declan Rice, Mikel Merino, Noni Madueke, Martin Ødegaard, Ebere Eze, Viktor Gyökeres
Bukayo Saka is out indefinitely.
The Teams' Chances
An Arsenal win has a margin-free probability of 88.6%, with average odds of 1.08 and fair odds of 1.13. The corresponding figures are 8.0%, 12.00 and 12.54 for a draw, and 3.4%, 28.00 and 29.26 for a Fleetwood Town win.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town to win | 28.00 | 29.26 | 3.4% |
| Draw | 12.00 | 12.54 | 8.0% |
| Arsenal to win | 1.08 | 1.13 | 88.6% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.33 is a much stronger favourite than Under 2.5 goals at 3.05. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.11 has much shorter odds than Under 2 goals at 5.20. The 3.5-goal line is the most evenly matched: Over 3.5 goals is 1.86 and Under 3.5 goals is 1.88.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.05 | 1.33 |
| 2 | 5.20 | 1.11 |
| 3.5 | 1.88 | 1.86 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/1
|
1/20
|
1/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Goals Prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Fleetwood Town — 0.5 goals; Arsenal — 3.5 goals.
Fleetwood Town Team Goals
For Fleetwood Town's team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.49 has shorter odds than Over 0.5 at 2.46. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.05 is a much stronger favourite than Over 1.5 at 6.90.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | 0.5 | 2.46 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 6.90 |
Arsenal Team Goals
For Arsenal's team goals, Over 2.5 at 1.50 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 2.43. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.58 is favoured over Over 3.5 at 2.26; at the 4.5-goal line, Under 4.5 at 1.22 is favoured over Over 4.5 at 3.75.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.43 | 2.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.58 | 3.5 | 2.26 |
| 1.22 | 4.5 | 3.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Salisbury (England)
Matches — 19 (Premier League and English cup competitions, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 19.
