Odds overview
Getafe are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Getafe win is available at 1.80, the draw at 3.55 and a Lugano win at 4.70. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. For the zero handicap, Getafe (0) at 1.30 look considerably more likely than Lugano (0) at 3.20.
Why Getafe are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: a Getafe win is offered at 1.80, the draw at 3.55 and an away win for Lugano at 4.70.
• Getafe play in Spain’s La Liga, which ranks third in the UEFA rankings, and they also have home advantage.
• In the 21st century, Lugano have not faced a club from one of Europe’s top five leagues in European competition: the standard of opposition could come as a shock.
• In the latest La Liga round, Getafe managed to score despite being a player down and avoided defeat against Rayo Vallecano (1:1).
Form and Line-up Getafe
The team from the outskirts of Madrid traditionally build their game around defence, looking to slow the tempo and limit their opponents’ scoring. Getafe have scored no more than one goal in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Experienced newcomer Daniel Carvajal has joined the defence and made his first start for the team in the previous match against Rayo Vallecano. He is very likely to feature.
- More than 3.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Getafe’s last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Getafe committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- No more than three goals were scored in any of Getafe’s last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Getafe line-up (4-2-3-1): David Soria, Andrés García, Djené, Jean Yves Valou, Da Vinci, Nemanja Gudelj, Kiko Femenía, Martín Satriano, Mario Martín, Borja Mayoral, Ramón Terrats
Absentees: Zaid Romero (injured), Iván Azón, Orel Mangala (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Lugano
Lugano made a successful start to the UEFA Conference League league phase, beating Red Star Belgrade 3:2 at home with 18 shots, five of them on target. The visitors also have a congested schedule to manage: head coach Mattia Croci-Torti has spoken of a busy spell of eight matches in less than a month.
- There were more than 7.5 shots on target in each of Lugano’s last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Lugano’s opponents committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Lugano took fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Probable Lugano line-up (3-4-2-1): David von Ballmoos, Antonios Papadopoulos, Lars Lukas Mai, Hannes Delcroix, Bekhruz Karimov, Uran Bislimi, Anto Grgic, Daniel Correia, Yanis Cimignani, Renato Steffen, Albian Ajeti
Absentees: Carbone (injured)
The teams’ chances
Getafe to win: average odds of 1.80, fair odds of 1.89 and a probability of 52.9%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 3.55, 3.73 and 26.8%; for a Lugano win, they are 4.70, 4.94 and 20.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 1.80 | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
| Lugano win | 4.70 | 4.94 | 20.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is favoured at 1.52, compared with 2.45 for Under 2 goals; at the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.27, compared with 3.40 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap prediction
Getafe (-1.5) are offered at 3.20, while Lugano (+1.5) are at 1.30. Similarly, Getafe (-1) at 2.55 have longer odds than Lugano (+1) at 1.52. With a zero handicap, Getafe (0) are at 1.30, compared with 3.20 for Lugano (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.30 | |
| 2.55 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.52 | |
| 1.30 | 0 | 3.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.80 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 1.95: the market slightly favours at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.95 |
| No | 1.80 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/50
|
29/100
|
1/1
|
| William Hill |
1/5
|
3/10
|
91/100
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
3/10
|
91/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Getafe at 1.5 goals and Lugano at 0.5 goals.
Getafe team total goals
For Getafe’s team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.16 is a much stronger favourite than Under 0.5 goals at 4.30, while Over 1 goal at 1.32 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 3.10. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 goals at 1.78 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.98. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.32 has shorter odds than Over 2 goals at 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.10 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.05 |
Lugano team total goals
For Lugano’s team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.62 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 2.25. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.52 is favoured over Over 1 goal at 2.45; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is available at 1.25, compared with 3.65 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.52 | 1 | 2.45 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
