Odds Overview
Cologne hold a slight edge in the 1X2 market: the away win is available at 2.45 versus 2.75 for the home win, while the draw is quoted at 3.70. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.60, while Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.35. In the main handicap market, the away Draw No Bet is slightly shorter at 1.82 than the home Draw No Bet at 2.00.
Why Cologne Are the Match Favourites
The bookmakers give the visitors a slight edge: a Cologne win is quoted at 2.45, a Hamburg win at 2.75, and the draw at 3.70.
- Hamburg are bottom of the Bundesliga after three matches, with no points and a goal difference of 0:12.
- Under Rene Wagner, Cologne consistently create chances at the opposition goal, although they have conceded in all 11 official matches under his management.
Form and Line-up Hamburg
At the start of the season, Hamburg suffered three consecutive defeats — against Borussia Dortmund (0:2), Mainz (0:5) and RB Leipzig (0:5). The team have yet to score in the league and are bottom of the division for goals scored.
After two heavy defeats, sporting director Klaus Costa acknowledged tactical problems, and the coaching staff devoted a week of preparation to defensive solidity. In home matches, Hamburg regularly commit at least 11 fouls and register five or fewer shots on target.
- Hamburg have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches
- Hamburg have registered no more than five shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches
- Hamburg have committed at least 11 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches
Probable Hamburg line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Shafiq Nandja, Jordan Torunarigha, Nicolas Capaldo, Zakaria El Ouahdi, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nicolai Remberg, David Moller Wolfe, Patson Daka, Albert Gronbaek, Yussuf Poulsen
Form and Line-up Cologne
Cologne began the league campaign with a win over Hoffenheim (3:2), lost to Stuttgart (1:4) and drew with Werder Bremen (1:1). Their matches have featured a high overall expected-goals total — their combined xG ranks among the top three in the league.
Away from home, Cologne often allow opponents to have more than 12 shots at their goal, while being disciplined in the tackle and committing 10 fouls or fewer.
- In 8 of Cologne's last 10 away Bundesliga matches, their opponents have scored at least two goals
- Cologne have taken at least five corners in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches
- Cologne have not won any of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches
Probable Cologne line-up (4-2-3-1): Marvin Schwabe, Alessio Castro-Montes, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Luka Lochoshvili, Gideon Mensah, Ellyes Skhiri, Tom Krauß, Linton Maina, Mikey Moore, Marius Bulter, Thijs Dallinga
Team Chances
The no-margin estimate gives Cologne a 39.2% chance of winning at fair odds of 2.55; Hamburg have 34.9% and 2.87, while the draw has 25.9% and 3.86. The away win is available at 2.45, the home win at 2.75, and the draw at 3.70.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg win | 2.75 | 2.87 | 34.9% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Cologne win | 2.45 | 2.55 | 39.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5 mark, the relationship is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap Prediction
The home -1.5 handicap is available at 4.40 and the away -1.5 handicap at 4.20. The odds are shorter with a +1.5 handicap: home +1.5 at 1.20 and away +1.5 at 1.16. For the -1 line, home -1 is offered at 3.85 and away -1 at 3.45; for the +1 line, home +1 is available at 1.25 and away +1 at 1.22. In the Draw No Bet market, away Draw No Bet at 1.82 is shorter than home Draw No Bet at 2.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | -1.5 | 4.20 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.85 | -1 | 3.45 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.22 |
| 2.00 | 0 | 1.82 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.50, considerably shorter than both teams to score — No at 2.50. The market considers an exchange of goals more likely, while the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
29/100
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
1/2
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Hamburg — 1.5 goals; Cologne — 1.5 goals.
Hamburg Team Total
Hamburg team total: Under 0.5 goals — 3.95, Over 0.5 goals — 1.20; Under 1 goal — 2.55, Over 1 goal — 1.48. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals is shorter at 1.65 than Over 1.5 goals at 2.15. For the 2-goal mark, Under 2 goals is available at 1.27 and Over 2 goals at 3.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.48 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.27 | 2 | 3.35 |
Cologne Team Total
Cologne team total: Under 0.5 goals — 4.20, Over 0.5 goals — 1.17; Under 1 goal — 3.15, Over 1 goal — 1.30. At the 1.5 line, the odds are nearly equal: Under 1.5 goals — 1.82 and Over 1.5 goals — 1.93. For the 2-goal mark, Under 2 goals is quoted at 1.33 and Over 2 goals at 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.33 | 2 | 3.05 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Matthias Jollenbeck (Germany)
Matches — 15 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.8;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 15;
Matches with penalties — 12 of 15.
