Betting Tip
Sturm do not have to win here. Any result will do for them, as long as they do not lose by four goals or more. Austrian sides do not usually get themselves into such scrapes: their last heavy defeat in an official match came against Bodo/Glimt in last season’s play-offs (0:5). Over their last 22 games Fabio Ingolitsch’s team have lost only once, and that was in a friendly.
The Austrians are already into their season. Second place in the Austrian league and a solid pre-season have produced six matches with a 19:4 goal difference and three clean sheets in a row. This is Sturm’s sixth attempt in a row to secure a place in the main phase of European competition, and they know how to get through rounds like this.
Hearts have come into the season in a different state. Derek McInnes has left for Rangers and taken Lawrence Shankland with him, Wouter Vrancken only took charge of the club on 25 June, and they have brought in more than ten new players. A team that last spring spent 250 days on top of the Scottish league is now having to be rebuilt from scratch.
The numbers from the first game are tempting: 67% possession, 19 shots, five big chances. But goals are not scored by statistics. Hearts did not beat Daniil Khudyakov once, conceded from a cross as early as the fourth minute and collapsed after the break — three goals in 15 minutes. Possession without a goal is not form, it is a diagnosis.
At home the Scots will have to pour forward from the first minute. There is no other way to make up four goals. Space behind the defenders will open up straightaway, and Sturm have players to run into it: 17-year-old Luca Weinhandl produced a goal and an assist in Graz, while Jeyland Mitchell and Jurgen Heil were the scorers. Ingolitsch only needs to close off the middle and wait for a mistake.
The emotion at Tynecastle will give Hearts a boost for the opening half-hour; after that, the football will start. Sturm may well take the second leg as well. The team have a solid cushion.
