Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Hoffenheim are favourites at around 2.00, while the draw is quoted at 4.00 and a Lyon win at 3.35. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.52 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.45. Hoffenheim Draw No Bet (0) has shorter odds at 1.55 than Lyon Draw No Bet (0) at 2.50.
Why Hoffenheim are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Hoffenheim are available to win at 2.00, the draw is at 4.00 and a Lyon win is at 3.35.
- Although Hoffenheim have lost three of their four home matches this season, each by 2:3, they have scored at least twice in every one.
- Hoffenheim have faced Lyon three times without losing, drawing all three matches, and home advantage favours the German side.
- Lyon have won just twice in six away matches this season.
Form and Line-up Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim have lost six of their nine matches in all competitions this season, including UEFA Europa League defeats to OFI Crete (0:2) and Beşiktaş (2:3). Their latest match went better, however: they beat Borussia Mönchengladbach (2:1) in the league to end a four-match losing run.
- Over 9.5 corners have been recorded in 9 of Hoffenheim's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- Hoffenheim have had at least as many offsides as their opponents in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- The two teams have had over 24.5 shots combined in 8 of Hoffenheim's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Oliver Baumann, Vladimír Coufal, Ozan Kabak, Koki Machida, Bernardo, Wouter Burger, Leon Avdullahu, Andrej Kramarić, Fisnik Asllani, Adam Daghim, Adam Hložek.
Absentees: Nathan De Cat, Albian Hajdari, Patrick Wimmer (all injured).
Form and Line-up Lyon
Before this away trip, Lyon recorded two consecutive home wins. On 15 October, the French side beat Crystal Palace 3:2 in the UEFA Europa League, having previously beaten Anderlecht (2:1). They then defeated Nice 2:1 in Ligue 1 on 18 October, when Keito Nakamura came off the bench and was sent off after nine minutes on the pitch.
- Under 10.5 corners has been a winning bet in 9 of Lyon's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Over 22.5 fouls have been recorded in 8 of Lyon's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Lyon's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Dominik Greif, Zachary Athekame, Felix Bacher, Ruben Kluivert, Abner, Noah Nartey, Tyler Morton, Ernest Nuamah, Khalis Merah, Corentin Tolisso, Keito Nakamura.
Absentees: Loïs Openda, Nicolás Tagliafico, Mamadou Ouédraogo (all injured).
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Hoffenheim a 47.7% chance, with average odds of 2.00 and fair odds of 2.10. The draw is rated at 23.8%, with average and fair odds of 4.00 and 4.19 respectively; a Lyon win is rated at 28.5%, with odds of 3.35 and 3.51.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win | 2.00 | 2.10 | 47.7% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.19 | 23.8% |
| Lyon to win | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.52, compared with 2.45 for Under 2.5, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring match. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.65 over Over 3.5 at 2.25.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Hoffenheim (-1.5) are at 3.05 and Lyon (-1.5) at 5.60. At the +1.5 line, Hoffenheim (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.09 than Lyon (+1.5) at 1.32. At -1, Hoffenheim (-1) are at 2.60 and Lyon (-1) at 5.00; at +1, the respective odds are 1.12 and 1.47. At the zero handicap, Hoffenheim (0) are favoured at 1.55 over Lyon (0) at 2.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | -1.5 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.60 | -1 | 5.00 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.55 | 0 | 2.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.47 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.60, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.47 |
| No | 2.60 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/10
|
11/50
|
4/5
|
| William Hill |
33/100
|
1/4
|
3/4
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
1/4
|
3/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Hoffenheim — 1.5 goals; Lyon — 1 goal.
Hoffenheim team total goals
For Hoffenheim's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.11 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.20, while Over 1 at 1.25 is favoured over Under 1 at 3.50. The odds are closer at the 1.5-goal line: Over 1.5 is at 1.70 and Under 1.5 at 2.07. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 has shorter odds of 1.57 than Over 2 at 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 2.07 | 1.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.57 | 2 | 2.35 |
Lyon team total goals
For Lyon's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.50, while Over 1 at 1.60 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.30. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.55 over Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)
Matches — 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.1;
Matches with a red card — 1 in 10;
Matches with a penalty — 3 in 10.
