The Matchday 8 qualifier for the 2026 FIFA World Cup between Italy and Israel will take place on October 14 at the Friuli Stadium in Udine. Italy vs. Israel: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Italy
Gennaro Gattuso's side secured a 3-1 away victory against Estonia in the last round, marking their fourth consecutive win in this qualifying campaign. The team has scored at least two goals in each of these matches. However, it's worth noting that Italy has conceded eight goals, with only Turkey (9) having a worse record among second-placed teams. A win in the upcoming game will be enough for Italy to secure at least the second spot in the group.
- Italy has not lost in 13 of their last 15 World Cup qualifiers (8 wins, 5 draws).
- The team has opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games in this tournament.
- At home, Italy has not conceded more than one goal in their last 13 World Cup qualifiers.
Predicted lineup for Italy (3-5-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Gianluca Mancini, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo – Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Andrea Cambiaso, Bryan Cristante, Federico Dimarco – Matteo Retegui, Francesco Esposito.
Defender Alessandro Bastoni is suspended. Forward Moise Kean will miss the match due to injury.
Israel
Israel suffered a crushing 0-5 defeat to Norway in the last round. Ran Ben-Shimon's side has lost three times in this qualification, but they also have three wins. However, these uncompromising results have put the team in a difficult position: they are three points behind the second spot, and dropping points in the upcoming match will end Israel's hopes of reaching the World Cup finals. The match against Norway ended Israel's nine-game scoring streak in this tournament.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Israel's last 10 World Cup qualifiers.
- The team has not drawn in their last 13 away World Cup qualifiers (7 wins, 6 losses).
- At least four goals were scored in Israel's last 8 away games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Israel (4-5-1)
Omri Glazer – Or Blorian, Roy Revivo, Matan Baltaxa, Eli Dasa – Anan Khalaili, Oscar Gloukh, Eliel Peretz, Dan Biton, Manor Solomon – Tai Baribo.
Defenders Stav Lemkin and Idan Nachmias are injured. Nikita Stoinov has been called up as their replacement.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 22 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 69;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 55%.
Match Prediction: Italy vs. Israel
Israel is under pressure. Ran Ben-Shimon's team cannot afford to drop points, so they must play for a win even against a strong opponent away from home. Scoring will be crucial, and Israel has been prolific: before the match against Norway, they scored in nine consecutive World Cup qualifiers, always finding the net at least twice. However, they kept a clean sheet only once during this period, against the weakest team in Group I.
Italy is in a more comfortable position in terms of standings. However, they will likely want to secure at least second place in front of their home fans. Under Gennaro Gattuso, the team has won three straight matches, scoring 13 goals but also conceding five, including against modest Estonia.
In the first round, the teams played a highly entertaining match, scoring a total of nine goals. I expect another goal-fest. My prediction: Both teams to score and Total over 2.5 goals – yes
