Odds overview
Jagiellonia Bialystok are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.40, compared with 5.00 for a draw and 7.20 for an Ararat-Armenia win. Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.26. In the handicap market, Jagiellonia Bialystok (-1) at 1.63 are favoured over Ararat-Armenia (-1) at 2.17.
Why Jagiellonia Bialystok are favourites
The bookmakers' odds point to an advantage for the Polish club: a Jagiellonia Bialystok win is available at 1.40, a draw at 5.00 and an Ararat-Armenia win at 7.20.
- The hosts go into the match as favourites because of the gap in quality and a win probability of over 67% after removing the bookmakers' margin.
- Ararat-Armenia have regularly been outshot by their opponents in European competition: they have had fewer total shot attempts, including blocked shots, in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Form and Line-up Jagiellonia Bialystok
- The Polish club are preparing for a home European match, looking to control midfield and make the most of home advantage.
Probable Jagiellonia Bialystok line-up (4-3-3): Sławomir Abramowicz, Yuki Kobayashi, Bernardo Vital, Guilherme Montóia, Rodrigo Conceição, Taras Romanchuk, Kajetan Szmyt, Anders Klinge, Jesús Imaz, Nik Prelec, Jeremy Agbonifo
Form and Line-up Ararat-Armenia
In the pre-match UEFA Europa League figures, Ararat-Armenia rank 3rd among 36 teams for shots on target conceded: opponents average 7.0 shots on target per match against them.
The Armenian club also compete fiercely and regularly receive bookings: they have had over 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition.
- Ararat-Armenia have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches
- Over 3.5 total yellow cards has landed in 9 of Ararat-Armenia's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches
- Ararat-Armenia's opponents have committed more than 12.5 fouls in all 10 of their last UEFA Europa League matches
Probable Ararat-Armenia line-up (4-2-3-1): João Victor, Junior Bueno, Edgar Grigoryan, Bruno Wilson, Alexandros Malis, Hugo Oliveira, Zidane Banjaqui, Karen Muradyan, Benny, Artur Serobyan, Sandro Lima
The teams' chances
The average odds for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win, a draw and an Ararat-Armenia win are 1.40, 5.00 and 7.20 respectively. After removing the margin, the estimated probabilities are 67.8% for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win at fair odds of 1.47, 19.0% for a draw at 5.27 and 13.2% for an Ararat-Armenia win at 7.58.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Bialystok to win | 1.40 | 1.47 | 67.8% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.27 | 19.0% |
| Ararat-Armenia to win | 7.20 | 7.58 | 13.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.26 and Over 2.5 at 1.58; at a line of 2 goals, Under is 3.50 and Over is 1.25. At 3.5 goals, the odds are 1.50 for Under and 2.43 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.26 | 1.58 |
| 2 | 3.50 | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.43 |
Handicap prediction
Jagiellonia Bialystok (-1.5) are available at 2.08, while Ararat-Armenia (-1.5) are at 1.69. At a handicap line of -1, Jagiellonia Bialystok (-1) have shorter odds of 1.63, compared with 2.17 for Ararat-Armenia (-1).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | -1.5 | 1.69 |
| 1.63 | -1 | 2.17 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
11/100
|
9/50
|
7/4
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
9/50
|
7/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines: Jagiellonia Bialystok — 2 goals; Ararat-Armenia — 0.5 goals.
Jagiellonia Bialystok team total goals
For Jagiellonia Bialystok's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.90 and Over 0.5 at 1.08; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 2.54 and 1.46. At a line of 2 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under at 1.88 and Over at 1.84. At 2.5 goals, Under is 1.53 and Over is 2.37.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.54 | 1.5 | 1.46 |
| 1.88 | 2 | 1.84 |
| 1.53 | 2.5 | 2.37 |
Ararat-Armenia team total goals
For Ararat-Armenia's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.19 and Over 0.5 at 1.62. At 1.5 goals, Under is quoted at 1.21 against 3.85 for Over; at 2.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.03 and 7.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.19 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.21 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Anastasios Papapetrou (Greece)
Matches — 7 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 7;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 7.
