Odds overview
Jagiellonia are clear favourites: a home win is priced at 1.35, while the draw is 4.90 and an away win is 8.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. In the handicap market, Iberia 1999 (+1.5) at 1.75 is priced lower than Jagiellonia (-1.5) at 2.00.
Why Jagiellonia Bialystok are favourites for the match
In the first leg of the knockout play-offs, bookmakers give the hosts a significant advantage: Jagiellonia to win is priced at 1.35, the draw is 4.90, and an Iberia win is available at 8.50.
Jagiellonia have performed confidently at home in European qualification, as shown by their 2:1 home win over Rangers in the previous round.
The visitors' defensive vulnerability was exposed before their trip to Poland: Iberia lost 3:4 in a Georgian league match, conceding four goals.
Jagiellonia's squad value is almost five times higher than that of Georgia's Iberia 1999 — €29 million versus €6 million.
Form and Line-up Jagiellonia Bialystok
The Polish club cleared the third qualifying round of the Europa League through their resilience away from home: Jagiellonia drew 1:1 with Rangers in Glasgow and progressed 3:2 on aggregate.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 Europa League matches, Jagiellonia scored no more than one goal.
In 8 of Jagiellonia's last 10 Europa League matches, no more than 4 yellow cards were shown.
At least two goals were scored in 8 of Jagiellonia's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Jagiellonia Bialystok line-up (4-3-3): Slawomir Abramowicz — Norbert Wojtuszek, Yuki Kobayashi, Bernardo Vital, Guilherme Montoya — Jesus Imaz, Taras Romanczuk, August Kluenge — Rodrigo Conceicao, Nick Prelec, Kajetan Szmyt.
Form and Line-up Iberia 1999
The Georgian side came through the previous stage of the tournament against Larne: after drawing 0:0 away, Iberia won 2:1 at home after extra time. The club have already secured a place in the Conference League league phase, so they can play in Bialystok without undue pressure.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions, Iberia's opponents committed at least 12 fouls.
In 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Iberia's opponents scored no more than 2 goals.
In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Iberia scored no more than 2 goals.
Probable Iberia 1999 line-up (4-3-3): Giorgi Makaridze — Vahid Selimovic, Giorgi Kobuladze, Aleksandre Amisulashvili, Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava — Nikoloz Dadiani, Giorgi Kutsia, Bakar Kardava — Nika Sikharulashvili, Zviad Natchkebia, Vakhtang Bedoshvili.
Team chances
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win is offered at 1.35; the margin-free price is 1.43 and the probability is 69.7%. The respective figures for the draw are 4.90, 5.21 and 19.2%, and for Iberia 1999 to win they are 8.50, 9.03 and 11.1%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average margin-free odds | Margin-free probability |
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win | 1.35 | 1.43 | 69.7% |
Draw | 4.90 | 5.21 | 19.2% |
Iberia 1999 to win | 8.50 | 9.03 | 11.1% |
Totals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.70, compared with 2.10 for Under 2.5 goals. On the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.43 is now preferred, while Over 3.5 goals is priced at 2.60.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.43 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Iberia 1999 (+1.5) at 1.75 is priced lower than Jagiellonia (-1.5) at 2.00. On the 1-goal line, Jagiellonia (-1) is 1.52 and Iberia (+1) is 2.35. With a zero handicap, Jagiellonia (0) at 1.09 is considerably shorter than Iberia (0) at 5.80.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.00 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.75 |
1.52 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.35 |
1.09 | 0 | 5.80 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.75 is rated more highly than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.02: the odds suggest that at least one team is more likely not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.02 |
No | 1.75 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.05 is the most likely double-chance outcome; 12 is offered at 1.16 and X2 at 3.05.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.05 | 1.16 | 3.05 |
Individual totals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Jagiellonia Bialystok — 2 goals, Iberia 1999 — 0.5 goals.
Jagiellonia Bialystok team total
Jagiellonia Bialystok: Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is significantly more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 7.80. On the 1.5 line, Over is 1.45 versus 2.55 for Under; on the 2-goal line, Over at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Under at 1.90. For 2.5, Under is priced at 1.50 and Over at 2.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.80 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
2.55 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
1.90 | 2 | 1.80 |
1.50 | 2.5 | 2.40 |
Iberia 1999 team total
Iberia 1999: on the 0.5 line, Under and Over have identical odds of 1.85. Under 1 is 1.27 versus 3.45 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 at 1.13 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 4.80.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.85 | 0.5 | 1.85 |
1.27 | 1 | 3.45 |
1.13 | 1.5 | 4.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea (Spain)
Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 2.7;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 8;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 8.
