Match bet
Bodø/Glimt approach the match at the peak of their season. The Norwegians are top of the Eliteserien: 17 rounds, 13 wins and a goal difference of 43:12. NEC have played only two matches in the new league campaign — a 1:2 home defeat to Telstar and a 4:1 thrashing of Willem II. The difference in match sharpness is obvious.
Last spring, Kjetil Knutsen's side knocked Inter out of the Champions League. The 2:1 win at the San Siro and 5:2 aggregate score were not a one-off, but an indication of how the Norwegians perform away to opponents of a higher calibre. In the third round of this qualifying campaign, they drew 3:3 in Brussels before finishing off Union at home.
Defence is the main argument for the visitors. Bodø/Glimt concede an average of 0.71 goals per match, compared with 1.56 for NEC. Dick Schreuder's system with three centre-backs and a high line generates intense pressing, but leaves space in behind. Jens Petter Hauge and Ole Didrik Blomberg are made for exactly those areas.
Nijmegen lost their core over the summer. Bashar Önal joined Lille for €12.5 million, Kodai Sano moved to PSV, while the club let Dirk Proper and Jasper Cillessen leave. They signed free agents instead: Dusan Tadic, Perr Schuurs and Emre Mor. There is experience, but no cohesion.
Eliminating Olympiacos sounds impressive, but it was difficult. At home, NEC snatched victory only in extra time and only after the Greeks had a player sent off in the 80th minute. Before that, there had been two goalless halves in Piraeus. This is a team that endures rather than dictates play.
The Norwegians arrive in better condition, with a more reliable defence and genuine experience of European spring campaigns. We are backing the visitors.