Match bet
However, we would not overrate those 0:0 draws. Olympiacos simply have more options, especially if the match drags on again. In last season's Champions League, the Greeks beat Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 at home and drew 1:1 with PSV before reaching the knockout play-offs. For José Luis Mendilibar's side, matches like these have long ceased to be the biggest night of the year.
By contrast, NEC have lost two players over the past month who carried far too much of the burden. Başar Önal joined Lille for €12.5 million. Kodai Sano moved to PSV for around €15 million, having told the coach before the first meeting that he did not want to play. He is definitely gone now, and this is not the kind of loss that can be covered by a single reshuffle.
The defence is far from perfect too. Bram Nuytinck is injured, while Perr Schuurs is not yet ready after surgery. Philippe Sandler returned and started in Piraeus, but did not complete the match, then began on the bench again against Telstar. In other words, they have noticeably less depth than the visitors.
The defeat to Telstar concerns us more than the draw in Greece reassures us. On 8 August, NEC lost 1:2 at home to the Eredivisie newcomers. Yes, motivation is always different in the league and the Champions League. But only three days have passed, whereas Olympiacos had a full week without competitive matches after the first meeting. Their Greek league campaign will not begin until 22 August.
We should not expect the hosts to charge forward immediately. At 0:0, there is no reason for them to disrupt the game themselves. It will more likely be another cautious match in which much will be decided after the break — and this is where Olympiacos' squad appeals to us far more.
At 2.48, we are prepared to back the visitors. Not because Olympiacos are bound to overwhelm them through quality — the first match showed that they are not. It is simply that, over the course of these 90 minutes, Mendilibar has more quality players capable of changing the game.