Why Omonia Nicosia Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers consider Omonia Nicosia the favourites: a home win in the first leg is priced at 1.65, while Kairat Almaty are 4.90 to win. That advantage for the favourites is explained by several key factors.
Home advantage. Omonia Nicosia play at the GSP in Nicosia, where last year they comfortably beat Dynamo Kyiv (2:0). Kairat Almaty have not won away on the international stage since 2021.
Berg's experience. Henning Berg has returned to the club and led them to the title — their third championship in a decade. The coach knows how to prepare a team for European competition.
The newcomers' European experience. Kakoullis and Montnor have already shown what they can do in Conference League qualifying (3+2 in four matches), and their level is comparable with the current opposition. Loic Nego has added experience in defence (89 Ligue 1 appearances).
Kairat Almaty's away form. Kairat are traditionally stronger at home than away in Europe — in their previous historic season they drew away to Olimpija Ljubljana (1:1) and Celtic (0:0), lost to KuPS (0:2) and Slovan Bratislava (0:1) in qualifying, and then lost every away game in the Champions League group stage.
Squad losses. Aleksandr Martynovich, a key defender, could miss the match through injury — without him, Kairat Almaty's defence looks less reliable.
Form and Line-up Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia come into the match after four pre-season friendlies: two wins and two draws. However, they were considered favourites only against Panetolikos (2:1). The club have not played in European competition since 2021, when they failed to get past Dinamo Zagreb (0:1, 0:2).
In the summer, Omonia Nicosia lost key forwards Ryan Mmaee and Willy Semedo, who scored 42 goals between them in the Cypriot league, but they have been replaced by a partnership from Aris Limassol — Andronikos Kakoullis and Jaden Montnor, who have already scored in friendlies. The defence has been strengthened by Loic Nego, who played for French side Le Havre last season.
Key numbers for Omonia Nicosia:
They scored two goals in three of their four friendlies.
They won the championship by 18 points over second place and scored 88 goals.
They have failed to score in their last four Champions League matches.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Fabiano Freitas — Moses Odubajo, Senou Coulibaly, Stefan Simic — Andreas Christou, Anastasios Chatzigiovanis, Carel Eiting, Panagiotis Andreou, Ioannis Kousoulos — Mihlali Mayambela, Andronikos Kakoullis.
Form and Line-up Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty's season is in full swing: the team are on a five-match winning run in the Kazakhstan Premier League, but are behind Ordabasy by four points on points lost. In the first qualifying round of the Champions League, Kairat confidently got past Sutjeska Niksic (2:1, 2:0). Last season, Kairat Almaty reached the league phase of the Champions League, where they scored away to Sporting CP (1:4) and Inter Milan (1:2), and also twice troubled Copenhagen (2:3) and Arsenal (2:3).
In the summer, the club let top scorer Dastan Satpaev go to Chelsea, but the attack has been rebuilt around the Portuguese-Brazilian pairing of Jorginho and Edmilson — they have been involved in 22 of the club's 37 goals in the Premier League. In the Champions League, only Jorginho has scored so far (a penalty). The 18-year-old academy graduate Ismail Bekbolat has already made his mark in this Champions League campaign.
Key numbers for Kairat Almaty:
They have scored in 7 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
They have kept only two clean sheets in their previous 10 Champions League matches.
They have won seven matches in a row in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Temirlan Anarbekov — Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Aleksandr Shirobokov, Lucas Africo, Luis Mata — Adilet Sadybekov, Jaakko Oksanen, Oiva Jukkola — Jorginho, Ismail Bekbolat, Marc Gual.
Out: Aleksandr Martynovich (injury, doubtful).
