Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, AC Milan are favourites at 1.82, while a Red Bull Salzburg win and a draw are both offered at 4.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. On the handicap, Red Bull Salzburg (+1) at 1.52 is favoured over AC Milan (+1) at 2.39.
Why AC Milan are favourites
An AC Milan win is available at 1.82, a Red Bull Salzburg win at 4.00 and a draw at 4.00.
The standard of the Italian league is much higher than that of the Austrian league.
AC Milan have lost only once this season, with three wins, three draws and a defeat to Benfica in the UEFA Europa League.
AC Milan have three wins and a draw in their last four meetings with Red Bull Salzburg, with a goal difference of 9:1.
Form and Line-up Red Bull Salzburg
The Austrian club made a successful start to the UEFA Europa League league phase, beating Levski Sofia 1:0 to sit 14th in the table after Matchday 1. Red Bull Salzburg are still unbeaten in the Austrian league, with five wins and three draws, and trail leaders Rapid Vienna by three points, with a goal difference of 18:4.
- Red Bull Salzburg's opponents took fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg had more than 13.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Christian Früchtl, Leandro Morgalla, Tim Drexler, Kévin Boma, Dominik Schmid, Bartosz Mazurek, Abubakr Barry, Sota Kitano, Edmund Baidoo, Yorbe Vertessen, Haris Tabakovic.
Absentees: Enrique Aguilar, Soumaïla Diabaté, Justin Omoregie, Damir Redzic and Nikolas Veratschnig (all injured); Christian Zawieschitzky (doubtful).
Form and Line-up AC Milan
AC Milan are currently in the lower half of the UEFA Europa League league-phase table without having scored, following a 0:2 defeat to Benfica. In their latest Serie A match, the Italian side drew 1:1 with Sassuolo and now sit fifth with 12 points and a goal difference of 11:5.
- AC Milan's opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- AC Milan took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- AC Milan received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot, Davide Bartesaghi, Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Gonçalo Ramos.
Absentees: Alexis Saelemaekers and Matteo Gabbia (both injured).
The teams' chances
AC Milan to win is quoted at 1.82, with a margin-free probability of 52.4% and fair odds of 1.91. A Red Bull Salzburg win and a draw are both offered at 4.00, each with a margin-free probability of 23.8% and fair odds of 4.20.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg to win | 4.00 | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| AC Milan to win | 1.82 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
Total goals betting
Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 has considerably shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At a line of 2 goals, Over is offered at 1.23 against 3.65 for Under, while at 3.5 goals Under is favoured at 1.54 against 2.34 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.56 |
| 2 | 3.65 | 1.23 |
| 3.5 | 1.54 | 2.34 |
Handicap betting
Red Bull Salzburg (+1) at 1.52 has shorter odds than AC Milan (+1) at 2.39, indicating that the first option is considered more likely.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 1 | 2.39 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.57 has shorter odds than Both teams to score — No at 2.35, making it more likely that both teams will score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
1/4
|
33/100
|
| William Hill |
3/4
|
29/100
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
29/100
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Red Bull Salzburg — 1 goal; AC Milan — 1.5 goals.
Red Bull Salzburg team total goals
Red Bull Salzburg team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.33 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.05. At a line of 1 goal, Under at 1.96 is slightly longer than Over at 1.77, while in another row for the same line, Over at 1.19 is considerably shorter than Under at 4.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | 0.5 | 1.33 |
| 1.96 | 1 | 1.77 |
| 4.05 | 1 | 1.19 |
AC Milan team total goals
AC Milan team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.13 has considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.85. Over 1.5 at 1.67 is favoured over Under 1.5 at 2.10, while at a line of 2 goals, Under at 1.60 has shorter odds than Over at 2.22.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.85 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 2.10 | 1.5 | 1.67 |
| 1.60 | 2 | 2.22 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Horațiu Feșnic (Romania)
Matches — 13 (International Matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 30;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.9;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 13;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 13.
