Odds overview
Mjällby are favourites: an away win is available at 2.25, while a home win and a draw are quoted at around 3.25–3.40. The main 2.5-goal totals market is evenly balanced, with Under and Over both at 1.90. In the main handicap market, Mjällby (0) at 1.62 are clearly favoured over Iberia 1999 (0) at 2.30.
Why Mjällby are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Mjällby are offered at 2.25 to win, Iberia 1999 at 3.25 and the draw at 3.40.
• Mjällby opened the competition with a win and sit fifth after the first round of the UEFA Conference League with three points, while Iberia 1999 are 33rd without a point.
• Iberia 1999 have failed to win three of their four home matches in European competition this season (1-1-2).
Form and Line-up Iberia 1999
In the opening round of the UEFA Conference League, Iberia 1999 lost 0:2 away to Sint-Truiden without scoring. They offered little attacking threat: just four shots, only one of them on target. Ahead of the second round, the combined expected goals (xG) in the Georgian club's match stood at just 1.88 — the lowest figure in the league. Iberia 1999 accounted for only 0.15 xG of that total.
- There have been under 2.5 goals in 8 of Iberia 1999's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Iberia 1999 have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Iberia 1999 have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Giorgi Makaridze, Aleksandre Amisulashvili, Filip Kankar, Vahid Selimovic, Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava, Nikoloz Dadiani, Bakar Kardava, Nika Sikharulashvili, Zviad Natchkebia, Lucas Café, Amiran Dzagania
Form and Line-up Mjällby
The Swedish club began their UEFA Conference League group-stage campaign with a 2:0 home win over Inter Escaldes on 15 October. Nothing else was expected of Mjällby. Their final-round Allsvenskan match against Västerås (0:1) proved more difficult. Andreas Brännström rotated the squad on Sunday.
- Mjällby have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 goals in 7 of Mjällby's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Mjällby have not lost the yellow-card count in 9 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Alexander Lundin, Tony Miettinen, Axel Norén, Abdullah Iqbal, Martin Agnarsson, Jesper Gustavsson, Mads Enggård, Villiam Granath, Jeppe Kjaer, Viktor Gustafson, Jacob Bergström
Teams' chances
At average odds of 2.25, a Mjällby win looks more likely than an Iberia 1999 win at 3.25 or a draw at 3.40. The margin-free estimate gives Mjällby a 42.5% chance of winning (fair odds of 2.35), Iberia 1999 a 29.4% chance (3.40) and the draw a 28.1% chance (3.56).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberia 1999 to win | 3.25 | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.56 | 28.1% |
| Mjällby to win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.90, so the market does not favour either option. At the 3.5-goal line, Under at 1.35 is considerably more likely than Over at 2.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Iberia 1999 (-1.5) at 6.10 have longer odds than Mjällby (-1.5) at 3.85. At +1.5, Mjällby (+1.5) are shorter at 1.08 than Iberia 1999 (+1.5) at 1.22. Mjällby (-1) at 3.15 are favoured over Iberia 1999 (-1) at 5.30, while at +1, Mjällby (+1) are at 1.11 compared with Iberia 1999 (+1) at 1.30. At handicap (0), Mjällby (0) at 1.62 are considerably shorter than Iberia 1999 (0) at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | -1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.30 | -1 | 3.15 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.30 | 0 | 1.62 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.08; the latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.08 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
29/100
|
9/25
|
| William Hill |
31/50
|
3/10
|
7/20
|
| 888sport |
61/100
|
3/10
|
33/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Iberia 1999 — 1 goal; Mjällby — 1.5 goals.
Iberia 1999 team goals
Iberia 1999 team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.35 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 at 2.90. At the 1-goal line, Over at 1.75 is rated slightly more likely than Under at 2.00, while at 1.5, Under at 1.40 is favoured over Over at 2.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Mjällby team goals
Mjällby team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.20 and Over 1 at 1.42 have considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.90 and Under 1 at 2.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Under at 1.70 is favoured over Over at 2.08, while at 2 goals, Under is 1.30 and Over is 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.90 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.08 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
