Odds overview
Spain are clear favourites: a Spain win is available at 1.22, compared with 7.20 for a draw and 12.00 for a Czech Republic win. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.40, against 2.73 for Under 2.5 goals. In the handicap market, Spain (1.5) at 1.61 look more favourable than Czech Republic (1.5) at 2.20.
Why Spain are favourites
Spain are the bookmakers' favourites, with a win offered at odds of 1.22. A draw is available at 7.20 and a Czech Republic win at 12.00.
- Spain won the FIFA World Cup this year and lead Group A3 of the UEFA Europa League with a 100% record.
- Czech Republic are on a prolonged losing run in the competition, having lost all four of their UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Czech Republic
Czech Republic's most recent match was on 6 October, when they lost to England (0:3). Before that, they lost in the UEFA Nations League to Spain (1:3), England again (0:2) and Croatia (1:2). Ahead of the November matches, assistant coach Radek Bejbl told the media that no changes to the squad had been needed for medical reasons. He said the preparation priorities were to add variety in attack and work on pressing and applying pressure while retaining their defensive improvements.
- Czech Republic have failed to win in 9 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- The two teams have had more than 5.5 shots on target combined in 9 of Czech Republic's last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable Czech Republic line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukáš Horníček, Jiří Sláma, David Jurásek, David Zima, Adam Gabriel, Alex Král, Michal Sadílek, Lukas Cerv, David Kozel, Lukas Ambros, Ryan Naderi
Absentees: Pavel Sulc, Michal Sacek, Robin Hranáč, Ondrej Lingr (injured)
Form and Line-up Spain
On 6 October, Spain beat Croatia away in their most recent competitive match — 2:1. Before that, they beat Croatia 4:1 at home and England 3:2 away. We have already covered Czech Republic.
Spain have already secured a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals ahead of their visit to Prague. First place in the group is still to be decided, with their final matches against Czech Republic and England to come. Midfielder Mikel Merino has stood out for Spain's scoring output: in four matches in the competition, he has scored three goals and provided one assist, despite coming on as a substitute each time.
- Spain have scored more than 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Spain have not been outshot by their opponents in any of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable Spain line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Marc Pubill, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella, Fabián Ruiz, Pedri, Yéremy Pino, Fermín López, Álex Baena, Ferran Torres
Absentees: Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Rodri, Ander Barrenetxea (injured), Mikel Oyarzabal (illness)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Spain a 78.7% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.22 and fair odds of 1.27. A draw is rated at 13.3%, with odds of 7.20 against fair odds of 7.50. Czech Republic have an 8.0% chance of winning, with odds of 12.00 and fair odds of 12.50 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic win | 12.00 | 12.50 | 8.0% |
| Draw | 7.20 | 7.50 | 13.3% |
| Spain win | 1.22 | 1.27 | 78.7% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.40, compared with 2.73 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.15 is clearly favoured over Under 2 goals at 4.55. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals has a slight edge at 1.72, against 2.03 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.73 | 1.40 |
| 2 | 4.55 | 1.15 |
| 3.5 | 1.72 | 2.03 |
Handicap prediction
Spain (1.5) in the handicap market are offered at shorter odds of 1.61 than Czech Republic (1.5) at 2.20, indicating a preference for Spain with this handicap.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 1.5 | 1.61 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No is available at 1.75, while Both teams to score – Yes, which requires each side to score, is offered at 2.03.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.03 |
| No | 1.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
333/100
|
1/10
|
1/20
|
| William Hill |
18/5
|
1/10
|
1/25
|
| LeoVegas |
11/4
|
1/10
|
3/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Czech Republic — 0.5 goals; Spain — 2.5 goals.
Czech Republic team goals
For Czech Republic, Over 0.5 team goals at the 0.5-goal line is offered at slightly shorter odds of 1.80 than Under 0.5 team goals at 1.94. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 team goal at 1.25 is favoured over Over 1 team goal at 3.65; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 team goals is available at 1.15 against 4.55 for Over 1.5 team goals.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.94 | 0.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.65 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 4.55 |
Spain team goals
For Spain, Over 0.5 team goals at 1.03 is offered at much shorter odds than Under 0.5 team goals at 7.90. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 team goals is available at 1.35, compared with 3.00 for Under 2 team goals; at 2.5 goals, the odds are close — 1.83 for Over 2.5 team goals and 1.91 for Under 2.5 team goals. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 team goals at 1.58 is favoured over Over 3 team goals at 2.30.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.90 | 0.5 | 1.03 |
| 3.00 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 1.91 | 2.5 | 1.83 |
| 1.58 | 3 | 2.30 |
