Odds overview
England are clear favourites: an England win is available at 1.24, compared with 6.60 for a draw and 11.00 for a Croatia win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.51. In the handicap market, England (-1.5) at 1.68 look a better option than Croatia (-1.5) at 2.09.
Why England are favourites
England are the bookmakers' clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.24, a draw at 6.60 and a Croatia win at 11.00.
- England have consistently achieved positive results in the competition, winning 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Croatia have been vulnerable defensively, conceding at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Form and Line-up England
England comfortably beat Czechia 3:0 in their last match on 6 October. Much of their attack depends on Harry Kane: he has scored six goals and provided one assist in four matches in the current competition.
There has been a forced change in defence: Dan Burn was called up in place of the injured Marc Guéhi. He joined the team's training sessions ahead of the November matches.
- England have matched or exceeded their opponents' corner count in all 10 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Over 1.5 goals have been scored in all 10 of England's last 10 matches in official competitions.
Probable England line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford, Jarell Quansah, Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson, Rio Ngumoha, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon, Harry Kane.
Absentees: Bukayo Saka and Marc Guéhi will be unavailable because of muscle injuries. Myles Lewis-Skelly will miss the match through suspension.
Form and Line-up Croatia
Croatia lost 1:2 at home to Spain on 6 October. A round earlier, on 29 September, they lost 1:4 away to Spain.
Head coach Slaven Bilic has called up Marin Soticek and Simun Hrgovic for the first time, seeking to strengthen the flanks and add depth to the squad. He also said that Josip Stanišić and Joško Gvardiol are ready to play in the match.
- Croatia have had fewer than 7.5 shots on target in all 10 of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Croatia's opponents have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in all 7 of their last 7 matches in official competitions.
Probable Croatia line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Livaković, Josip Stanišić, Luka Vušković, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Joško Gvardiol, Luka Modrić, Petar Sučić, Mateo Kovačić, Nikola Vlašić, Igor Matanović, Martin Baturina.
Absentees: Josip Šutalo, Franjo Ivanović, Marin Pongračić and Kristijan Jakic will miss the match through injury. Ivan Perišić is suspended.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives England a 76.9% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.24 and fair odds of 1.30. A draw is rated at 14.4%: the average odds are 6.60 and the fair odds are 6.92. Croatia have an 8.7% chance of winning, with corresponding odds of 11.00 and 11.54.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 1.24 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Draw | 6.60 | 6.92 | 14.4% |
| Croatia win | 11.00 | 11.54 | 8.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.51 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.47. At the 2-goal line, the odds are 4.05 for Under 2 goals and 1.19 for Over 2 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is offered at 1.62 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.19.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.51 | 1.47 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 1.19 |
| 3.5 | 1.62 | 2.19 |
Handicap prediction
England (-1.5) are quoted at 1.68, while Croatia (-1.5) are available at 2.09: the market rates England's chances slightly more highly.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | -1.5 | 2.09 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/100
|
1/10
|
11/4
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
7/50
|
14/5
|
| LeoVegas |
7/100
|
3/25
|
5/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: England — 2.5 goals, Croatia — 0.5 goals.
England team goals
England Under 0.5 goals is available at 7.40 and England Over 0.5 goals at 1.04. At the 2-goal line, England Under 2 goals is quoted at 2.45 and England Over 2 goals at 1.50. At the 2.5-goal line, the odds are 1.79 for England Under 2.5 goals and 1.95 for England Over 2.5 goals. At the 3-goal line, England Under 3 goals is available at 1.42 and England Over 3 goals at 2.70.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.45 | 2 | 1.50 |
| 1.79 | 2.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.42 | 3 | 2.70 |
Croatia team goals
At the 0.5-goal line, Croatia Under 0.5 goals is available at 1.92 and Croatia Over 0.5 goals at 1.82. Croatia Under 1.5 goals is offered at 1.14, while Croatia Over 1.5 goals is quoted at 4.65. Croatia Over 2.5 goals is listed at 9.10.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92 | 0.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 4.65 |
| 2.5 | 9.10 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Morten Krogh (Denmark)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 2.9;
Matches with a red card — 2 out of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 2 out of 11.
