Odds overview
Estonia are slight favourites: an Estonia win is available at 2.25, while a draw is quoted at 3.15 and a Bulgaria win at 3.50. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.48 is considered considerably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.55. For the handicap (0) market, Estonia (0) at 1.57 are favoured over Bulgaria (0) at 2.40.
Why Estonia are favourites
The bookmakers favour Estonia, offering odds of 2.25 on a home win. A draw is available at 3.15, while a Bulgaria win is quoted at 3.50.
- Estonia have picked up points consistently in the current campaign: they are unbeaten in their last five Nations League matches.
- Bulgaria have regularly dropped points in competitive fixtures, failing to win 6 of their last 10 competitive matches.
Form and Line-up Estonia
Estonia come into this match after an away win over Luxembourg: they won 1:0 on 13 November 2026. Earlier, on 6 October, they drew 0:0 at home to Iceland.
Estonia have not only defended well in this tournament — their defenders have contributed goals too: Maksim Paskotsi has scored twice in five tournament matches, while Rasmus Peetson has recorded one goal and one assist in four appearances.
- There have been fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of Estonia's last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Estonia have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up: Karl Hein, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi, Erko Tougjas, Karol Mets, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Mattias Käit, Kevor Palumets, Rocco Shein, Mattias Männilaan, Patrik Kristal.
Sinyavskiy and Sappinen were left out of Estonia's November squad for health reasons.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
Bulgaria, meanwhile, suffered a heavy 0:5 home defeat to Iceland on 13 November 2026. Afterwards, head coach Atanas Ribarski identified the team's problems: losing possession and making unforced errors in their own half. He also singled out the appearances of young players Lazarov and Pankov.
- Bulgaria have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Bulgaria have not had more shots on target than their opponents in any of their last five matches across all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up: Daniel Naumov, Yoni Stoyanov, Stefan Velkov, Emil Tsenov, Hristiyan Petrov, Andrian Kraev, Ilia Gruev, Lukas Petkov, Georgi Rusev, Kristiyan Balov, Atanas Iliev.
Martin Minchev is missing the training camp because of an injury sustained at his club, while defender Kristian Dimitrov was not called up to the national team for the November matches.
The teams' chances
An Estonia win is offered at 2.25; the fair odds are 2.36, with a probability of 42.4%. A draw is available at 3.15, with fair odds of 3.30 and a probability of 30.3%. A Bulgaria win is quoted at 3.50, with fair odds of 3.67 and a probability of 27.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.4% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Bulgaria win | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.48 is much shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.55. The odds are closer at the 2-goal line: Under 2 at 1.80 and Over 2 at 1.95. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.12 and Over 3.5 at 4.90.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
| 2 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| 3.5 | 1.12 | 4.90 |
Handicap betting analysis
Estonia (-1.5) are available at 4.90, while Bulgaria (-1.5) are at 7.40. At the +1.5 handicap, Estonia (+1.5) have short odds of 1.05 and Bulgaria (+1.5) are at 1.12. Estonia (-1) at 3.90 are shorter than Bulgaria (-1) at 6.50; for the +1 line, Estonia (+1) are offered at 1.07 and Bulgaria (+1) at 1.20. For the handicap (0) market, Estonia (0) at 1.57 are favoured over Bulgaria (0) at 2.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 7.40 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.90 | -1 | 6.50 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 1.57 | 0 | 2.40 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score – No at 1.63 is considered more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.20: at least one of the teams is expected not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.20 |
| No | 1.63 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
29/100
|
9/25
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
29/100
|
9/25
|
67/100
|
| LeoVegas |
27/100
|
7/20
|
7/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Estonia — 1 goal; Bulgaria — 0.5 goals.
Estonia team goals
For Estonia, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.90, while Over 0.5 is at 1.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 2.00 and Over 1 at 1.75. Under 1.5 is available at 1.40 and Over 1.5 at 2.70.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Bulgaria team goals
For Bulgaria, Under 0.5 goals at 2.25 is longer than Over 0.5 at 1.60. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 1.50 and Over 1 at 2.45. Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.23 and Over 1.5 at 3.70.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.45 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 3.70 |
