Odds overview
Norway are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.22, a draw at around 7.00 and a Wales win at 12.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.41 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.70. Norway (-1.5) are quoted at around 1.61, compared with 2.20 for Wales (-1.5).
Why Norway are favourites
Bookmakers make Norway favourites, offering 1.22 for a home win. A draw is available at 7.00 and a Wales win at 12.00.
- Norway regularly get a result: they have avoided defeat in six of their last ten competitive matches across all competitions.
- Wales have struggled to pick up three points: they have failed to win six of their last ten competitive matches across all competitions.
Form and Line-up Norway
In their previous match, on 4 October 2026, Norway lost 1:2 away to Portugal. A few days earlier, on 1 October, they had lost away to Wales by the same score, 1:2.
Fredrik Aursnes left the Norway squad ahead of the November camp, and Hugo Vetlesen was called up in his place. Alexander Sorloth has returned from injury but, according to head coach Stale Solbakken, is not yet ready to play 90 minutes in both matches of the window.
- At least two goals have been scored in each of Norway's last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
- Norway have recorded more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Norway line-up (4-3-3): Egil Selvik, Julian Ryerson, Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjorn Heggem, David Moller Wolfe, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Odegaard, Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland, Andreas Schjelderup
Form and Line-up Wales
Wales's most recent match, on 4 October 2026, ended in a 0:1 home defeat to Denmark. Before that, on 27 September, they lost 0:2 away to the Danes, failing to score.
Wales head coach Craig Bellamy noted that his side's intensity had dropped towards the end of the previous four-match window and stressed that Wales intend to give everything in the upcoming match against Norway.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 8 of Wales's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- The two teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of Wales's last 10 competitive matches.
Probable Wales line-up (3-4-3): Danny Ward, Neco Williams, Joe Rodon, Ben Davies, Jay Dasilva, Ethan Ampadu, Josh Sheehan, Brennan Johnson, Harry Wilson, Daniel James, Lewis Koumas
The teams' chances
The average odds on a Norway win are 1.22, with fair odds of 1.28 and an implied probability of 78.4%. For a draw, the average odds are 7.00, the fair odds are 7.32 and the probability is 13.7%. A Wales win is offered at 12.00, with fair odds of 12.55 and a probability of 8.0%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway to win | 1.22 | 1.28 | 78.4% |
| Draw | 7.00 | 7.32 | 13.7% |
| Wales to win | 12.00 | 12.55 | 8.0% |
Total goals betting
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 at 2.70 is considerably longer than Over 2.5 at 1.41. At 2 goals, Under 2 is available at 4.40, while Over 2 is 1.16. At a line of 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.71 and Over 3.5 at 2.05.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.70 | 1.41 |
| 2 | 4.40 | 1.16 |
| 3.5 | 1.71 | 2.05 |
Handicap betting
Norway (-1.5) at 1.61 are shorter than Wales (-1.5) at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.61 | -1.5 | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/50
|
1/10
|
3/1
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
11/100
|
3/1
|
| LeoVegas |
3/50
|
11/100
|
27/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Norway — 2.5 goals; Wales — 0.5 goals.
Norway team goals
For Norway, under 0.5 team goals is available at 7.40 and over 0.5 at 1.04. At the 2-goal line, Norway under 2 is offered at 2.65, compared with 1.45 for over 2. Norway under 2.5 at 1.90 is slightly longer than over 2.5 at 1.84, while at the 3-goal line, under 3 is quoted at 1.48 against 2.50 for over 3.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 2 | 1.45 |
| 1.90 | 2.5 | 1.84 |
| 1.48 | 3 | 2.50 |
Wales team goals
For Wales, at the 0.5-goal line, under 0.5 team goals is available at 1.93 and over 0.5 at 1.81. Wales under 1.5 at 1.15 is considerably shorter than over 1.5 at 4.55; at the 2.5-goal line, under 2.5 is quoted at 1.01 against 9.10 for over 2.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | 0.5 | 1.81 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 4.55 |
| 1.01 | 2.5 | 9.10 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Oleksiy Derevinskyi (Ukraine)
Matches — 11 (international fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.2;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 11.
