Odds overview
Portugal are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.51, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 5.60 for a Denmark win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.54 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.34. At a handicap of -1.5, Denmark are shorter at 1.57 than Portugal at 2.28.
Why Portugal are favourites
Bookmakers make Portugal clear favourites, offering odds of 1.51 on a home win. A draw is available at 4.70, while a Denmark win is quoted at 5.60.
- Portugal have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Denmark have scored in each of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Portugal have lost to Denmark only once in their last six head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Portugal
On 4 October 2026, Portugal beat Norway 2:1 at home. They had also taken maximum points from their previous matches, beating Denmark 4:2, Norway 2:1 and Wales 1:0.
- Portugal have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Portugal have registered over 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Portugal line-up (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa, Diogo Dalot, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Flávio Nazinho, Joao Palinya, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos.
Absentees: Rafael Leão, Francisco Conceição, Nuno Tavares and Nuno Mendes (all injured); João Cancelo (suspended).
Form and Line-up Denmark
On 4 October 2026, Denmark beat Wales 1:0 away from home, but lost 2:4 to Portugal on 1 October. Before that, they beat Wales 2:0 and lost 2:3 to Norway.
- Both teams recorded over 5.5 shots on target in 9 of Denmark's last 10 matches in official competitions.
- Denmark failed to win the corner count in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Denmark line-up (4-2-3-1): Mads Hermansen, Rasmus Kristensen, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Joakim Maehle, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Morten Hjulmand, Mads Bidstrup, Gustav Isaksen, Mohamed Daramy, Rasmus Højlund.
Absentees: Kasper Dolberg, Andreas Christensen, Christian Eriksen, Patrick Dorgu and Anton Gaaei (all injured); Victor Nelsson (doubtful).
The teams' chances
A Portugal win is offered at 1.51, with fair odds of 1.59 and a 62.9% probability. A draw is quoted at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.95 and a 20.2% probability. A Denmark win is available at 5.60, with fair odds of 5.90 and a 16.9% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 1.51 | 1.59 | 62.9% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.95 | 20.2% |
| Denmark win | 5.60 | 5.90 | 16.9% |
Total goals betting
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is available at 2.34 and Over 2.5 at 1.54. At a line of 2 goals, Under 2 is offered at 3.75 against 1.22 for Over 2. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.55 and Over 3.5 at 2.32.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.34 | 1.54 |
| 2 | 3.75 | 1.22 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.32 |
Handicap betting
Portugal (-1.5) are available at 2.28, while Denmark (-1.5) are quoted at 1.57. At a handicap of -1, the odds are closer: Portugal (-1) are offered at 1.79 and Denmark (-1) at 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.28 | -1.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.79 | -1 | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
9/50
|
3/2
|
| William Hill |
3/25
|
1/5
|
3/2
|
| LeoVegas |
4/25
|
1/5
|
27/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Portugal — 2 goals; Denmark — 0.5 goals.
Portugal team total goals
For Portugal, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.70 and Over 0.5 at 1.09. At a line of 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 2.46 against 1.49 for Over 1.5. At 2 goals, Under 2 is offered at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90; at a line of 2.5 goals, the odds are 1.49 for Under 2.5 and 2.46 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.49 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.49 | 2.5 | 2.46 |
Denmark team total goals
For Denmark, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.46 and Over 0.5 at 1.49. At a line of 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is available at 1.30, while Over 1.5 is offered at 3.20. At 2 goals, the odds are 1.08 for Under 2 and 6.60 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.46 | 0.5 | 1.49 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
| 1.08 | 2 | 6.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Rade Obrenovic (Slovenia)
Matches — 9 (international matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 9.
