Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Genoa are the favourites: a home win is available at 2.08, while the draw and an away win are offered at 3.40 and 3.70. The main 2.5-goal total market is almost evenly priced — Under is at 1.88 and Over at 1.92. Genoa Draw No Bet at 1.52 is notably favoured over Frosinone Draw No Bet at 2.55.
Why Genoa Are Favourites
Genoa to win is available at 2.08, the draw at 3.40 and Frosinone to win at 3.70. The arguments for this assessment are:
Frosinone have only just returned to Serie A and are still adapting. Genoa are playing their fourth consecutive season in Italy's top flight.
Genoa's squad is worth almost twice as much as Frosinone's (€169 million compared with €95 million).
Genoa have not lost to Frosinone in any of their last four meetings in Genoa.
Form and Line-up Genoa
Genoa began Serie A with three consecutive defeats, but their opponents were top sides — Napoli (0:2), Lazio (0:1) and Como (1:4). The Genoese side did, however, make a successful start in the Coppa Italia, thrashing Ascoli (4:1).
Key numbers:
Genoa have taken no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
In each of their last 10 Serie A matches, Genoa have received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Genoa have not won the offside count in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable Genoa line-up (3-4-1-2): Justin Bijlow — Alessandro Marcandalli, Leo Ostigard, Johan Vasquez — Stefano Sabelli, Djibril Sow, Tommaso Baldanzi, Mikael Ellertsson — Morten Frendrup — Lorenzo Colombo, Milutin Osmajic.
Absentees: Stephan El Shaarawy (doubtful), Elias Havel (injury).
Form and Line-up Frosinone
Frosinone have begun the Serie A season far more successfully. After an opening defeat to Juventus (0:1), the visitors recorded two consecutive victories — over Fiorentina (3:0) and Venezia (3:2). The only downside was an early Coppa Italia exit: Juve Stabia (4:1) were comfortably beaten, but Sassuolo (1:1, 3:4 on penalties) proved too strong for Frosinone in the next round after a penalty shoot-out.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 home matches, Frosinone have taken at least 5 corners.
In 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches, Frosinone have registered at least 4 shots on target.
In 8 of their last 10 away Serie A matches, Frosinone and their opponents have committed at least 24 fouls.
Probable Frosinone line-up (4-2-3-1): Lorenzo Palmisani — Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Calvani, Giorgio Cittadini, Gabriele Bracaglia — Giacomo Calo, Patrizio Masini — Seydou Fini, Romano Schmid, Giorgi Kvernadze — Antonio Raimondo.
Team Chances
Genoa to win is available at 2.08; the fair odds are 2.17, with a probability of 46.0%. The figures for the draw are 3.40, 3.55 and 28.1%, while Frosinone to win is at 3.70, 3.87 and 25.9%: the hosts have the highest rating.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Genoa win | 2.08 | 2.17 | 46.0% |
Draw | 3.40 | 3.55 | 28.1% |
Frosinone win | 3.70 | 3.87 | 25.9% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under at 1.88 is only marginally favoured over Over at 1.92. At the 3.5-goal line, Under at 1.32 is substantially shorter than Over at 3.10, pointing to a more likely low-scoring scenario.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
3.5 | 1.32 | 3.10 |
Handicap Prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Genoa (-1.5) is available at 3.80 and Frosinone (-1.5) at 6.40. At the 1.5 line, the odds for Genoa (+1.5) and Frosinone (+1.5) are 1.07 and 1.22. For the -1 and +1 lines, Genoa (-1) at 3.00 is shorter than Frosinone (-1) at 5.70, while Genoa (+1) at 1.09 is shorter than Frosinone (+1) at 1.35. In the Draw No Bet market, Genoa at 1.52 are favoured over Frosinone at 2.55.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.80 | -1.5 | 6.40 |
1.07 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
3.00 | -1 | 5.70 |
1.09 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.52 | 0 | 2.55 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.77 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.00; the latter outcome means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.77 |
No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
In the double chance market, 1X is available at 1.30, 12 at 1.35 and X2 at 1.75. The shorter odds for 1X and 12 compared with X2 favour scenarios in which Frosinone do not win.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.30 | 1.35 | 1.75 |
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Genoa — 1.5 goals; Frosinone — 1 goal.
Genoa Team Total
Genoa team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Under at 4.10 is substantially higher than Over at 1.20; at the 1-goal line, it is 2.70 against 1.40. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is at 1.70 and Over at 2.07, while at the 2-goal line, Under at 1.30 is notably shorter than Over at 3.25.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.10 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
1.70 | 1.5 | 2.07 |
1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
Frosinone Team Total
Frosinone team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.65 and Over at 1.45. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under at 1.80 and Over at 1.95. At the 1.5-goal line, Under at 1.35 is substantially shorter than Over at 2.95.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Antonio Rapuano (Italy)
Matches — 8 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 8;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 8.
